It’s time to put our money where our mouth is with our college football picks and predictions ahead of the Week 9 slate. We went early line shopping to start the week, and now we identify lines that didn’t change in our favor and those that may have shifted.
Week 9 College Football Picks and Predictions
As with any time you bet on sports, be sure to take advantage of any offer that comes your way. One on DraftKings Sportsbook will win $200 if you’re a new user just by betting $5 on a moneyline.
Let’s go shopping for that $5 moneyline winner (and then some)!
Northwestern vs. Iowa (37.5 points)
It once was the lowest game total in college football history, per Circa Sports, when the total opened at 31.5 points. To be fair, it was completely warranted. Northwestern has lost six straight games since defeating Nebraska in Ireland to open the year. Iowa has lost three in a row.
Collectively, each team has scored 14 or fewer points in eight different games this year and in six of their last seven combined games. It’s an abysmal affair to be on the offense for each team, as both units’ best weapons are their punters. Yes, their punters.
Spencer Petras was benched against Ohio State and Brendan Sullivan threw for 143 yards on 24 attempts against Wisconsin. Neither quarterback situation has been figured out on either side this season, and this new total of 37.5 points seems even less attainable than it was at 31.5.
Each defense has had its moments this year, and this should be an ugly affair with a lot of punting. Don’t rule out a safety or two with the way Tory Taylor and Luke Akers can pin each team back.
Grab the under. Hide from the pitiful offenses.
Prediction: Iowa 17, Northwestern 10
Illinois (-7) vs. Nebraska
Sure, playing at Nebraska is never an easy feat. The fans are some of the best in the sport, and the Cornhuskers can rally behind their fans as they only have the role of spoiler to play this season.
But don’t be alarmed. A savvy veteran leads the Illinois team in Tommy DeVito, and their defense is the best in the country. Illinois is currently first in the following defensive categories:
- Yards allowed (1,548)
- Yards per play allowed (3.78)
- Touchdowns allowed (5)
- Yards per game allowed (221.1)
- Yards per pass attempt (4.73)
- Completion percentage against (43.9%)
- Passing touchdowns allowed (2)
- Completions to interceptions (12.9%)
And they rank in the top four in every single major rushing defense category. No matter what Nebraska does, they won’t be able to move the ball against the Illini.
Prediction: Illinois 30, Nebraska 10
Wake Forest (-3) vs. Louisville
This one has come down in our favor and you should feel even more comfortable throwing more money Wake Forest’s way. The Demon Deacons still don’t get the national love they deserve. Since Sam Hartman has returned, they’ve been just an overtime period short of undefeated and sit at 6-1 this season.
Hartman has lit up opposing defenses for over 1,700 yards and 21 touchdowns against three interceptions. He’s the ACC’s top quarterback this season, and the Deacs defense is playing lights-out football as well.
After allowing 51 points to Clemson, Wake hasn’t allowed 51 total points in three games since. Louisville has been beatable through the air as well, allowing 10 passing touchdowns and 12.2 yards per completion this year. Expect those numbers to look even worse after this weekend.
Take the under. Take the Deacs.
Prediction: Wake Forest 38, Louisville 24
Oklahoma State (+1.5) vs. Kansas State
This line has moved closer to the pick ’em it should be, giving Kansas State the Homefield boost of roughly two points. The fact of the matter remains, this Oklahoma State team is capable of giving the Kansas State defense handfuls to deal with.
But the biggest storyline is the athleticism and prowess their defensive front has to bottle up the rushing attack that Kansas State likes to run. Their linebackers and safeties also have the ability to limit Deuce Vaughn out of the backfield as they run a similar defensive scheme to that of Tulane, who shut down Kansas State earlier this season.
Oklahoma State has veteran leadership, and you should expect Bryson Green and Brennan Presley to free each other up in coverage where they can shine. Points should be scored, and Oklahoma State scores more of ’em.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Kansas State 31
Cincinnati vs. UCF (pick ’em)
Talk about line value. And talk about a sticky situation if you’re a Cincinnati fan. But there are reasons you shouldn’t fret, Bearcats fans.
The UCF roster was kept in check by ECU just last Saturday, stopping the rushing attack that is John Rhys Plumlee from his quarterback position. Sure, UCF is #UCFast, but this Cincinnati linebacking corps is much better than ECU’s group.
Ivan Pace Jr. leads the nation in tackles for loss, and his brother Dashawn Pace is a run-stuffing menace. Together, they lead the Cincinnati defense as the third-best run-defending unit in the AAC, right on pace with ECU’s group.
In fact, Cincinnati’s defense limits opposing offenses to just 2.81 yards per rush attempt, the fifth-best mark in the country. It should be a sluggish offensive performance for both teams, but the deeper and more experienced team is Cincinnati.
The Bearcats have more to play for and are the better team.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, UCF 24
Rutgers vs. Minnesota (40.5 points)
This one has moved up a bit, likely reacting to the Iowa-Northwestern total. It’s still another incredibly-low total in the Big Ten, and another completely warranted low-scoring affair is likely. This one, however, did exactly as we expected, and it has shifted its total up three points. Vegas may know a thing or two about Tanner Morgan’s status, and the line shifting to Minnesota’s favor and up in points would indicate he may play.
Still, the Rutgers secondary is playing up to their standards this season and just single-handedly ended the game against Indiana in Week 7. If Morgan cannot go, this under hits. But if Morgan can go, grab the over.
As we did earlier, we’ll offer two predictions, one for each scenario.
Prediction (w/ Tanner Morgan): Minnesota 27, Rutgers 17
Prediction (w/out Tanner Morgan): Minnesota 21, Rutgers 17
