After going 5-1 in our early college football predictions and picks column, it’s time to find more value in the closing lines for Saturday’s action. We’ll outline some line changes and touch on previous early-line bets that were advised and whether or not to grab those games ahead of the action this weekend.
Week 11 College Football Picks and Predictions
Florida State (-7) vs. Syracuse
The first of our non-MAC early picks and predictions hails from the Carrier Dome. Opening at FSU (-6), the line has shifted a single point toward the Seminoles, but you should still feel confident in what we said earlier this week.
“A tale of two polar opposite teams in terms of momentum, Florida State rides high into the Carrier Dome against a reeling Syracuse Orange team. The Orange have dropped three straight while FSU has dominated their past two opponents, including a 42-point victory over Miami in Week 10.
“The Noles were a mere handful of plays away from being 8-1, with close-fought losses to NC State and Wake Forest dotting their tough October schedule. Still, Mike Norvell has the Seminoles trending in the right direction, and Jordan Travis is throwing the ball better than he ever has.
“What separates this FSU team from Syracuse, however, is their offensive line. FSU has started to dominate the line of scrimmage, something that had been lacking in Tallahassee for some time. Travis has ample time to dissect defenses while his own defense has also stepped up their game.
“Florida State’s All-American safety Jammie Robinson has speed and instincts to keep Sean Tucker in check out of the backfield, and no matter the quarterback at Syracuse, neither has the scrambling ability to outpace this FSU defense, even if they were healthy.”
Prediction: Florida State 38, Syracuse 17
LSU (-3.5) vs. Arkansas
Opening at LSU (-2), jumping on the Tigers by less than a field goal was the move here, as they’re the better team than Arkansas from top to bottom. Now that the line has shifted above a field goal, there may be better options elsewhere, but our initial prediction still stands true.
“This line seems way too good to be true after LSU just defeated Alabama in overtime. Even if the Tigers didn’t come away victorious against the Crimson Tide with their two-point conversion attempt, LSU pushed Bama to the brink, while Arkansas lost more convincingly than the final score indicates against Liberty.
“Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has needed to use his legs a lot more down the stretch of the season than hoped, and LSU has the ability to bottle him up. Harold Perkins Jr. just recently spied Bryce Young with great success for LSU, so tasking him with Jefferson should be a walk in the park.
“LSU is ready to make history as the first ever two-loss team to make the College Football Playoff. Arkansas will look just like a road apple with the way they’re playing right now.”
Prediction: LSU 41, Arkansas 33
Liberty (-14) vs. UConn
This game has come back down a bit, in favor of your wallet. Grab this game if it dips anywhere below two touchdowns, but even at Liberty (-14), style points are going to matter for the Flames, and they make an example out of UConn.
Our early-week pick and prediction for this game is also still true.
“Buying into the UConn rise to hope last week did up wonders as we cleaned up with the UConn moneyline and total points hitting the under against UMass. However, as good as it was to see UConn consistently back in the winning ways, this Liberty team is on another planet.
“Liberty is a failed two-point conversion attempt in overtime against Wake Forest from an undefeated record at this point of the season. And making matters even worse for UConn, the Flames’ defense is playing their best football to date in the last two weeks.
“The only caveat here is the fact that Liberty has only defeated two opponents by more than 15 points this season — BYU and UMass. However, the Flames are on the verge of getting into the College Football Playoff rankings and, ultimately, into the consideration of a New Year’s Six bowl if things fall their way.
“Style points will matter. Hugh Freeze can run this score up quick.”
Prediction: Liberty 44, UConn 20
SMU vs. USF (72.5 points)
Yes, SMU is coming off a victory in the highest-scoring regular-season game in FBS history. And yes, their offense is red hot. Even more, USF’s defense is abhorrent.
The only question is whether or not USF’s offense can score enough to get them over the hump here. With recent developments in USF’s offensive attack, you would think it is certainly possible. The Bullas have scored at least 24 points in their last five games and at least 21 points in all but one game this season.
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So wherein lies the issue with grabbing the over?
Jeff Scott was just fired, and he was largely seen as the reason behind USF’s offensive success (using the term “success” loosely) despite winning just four games in his tenure. How will this offense rebound without Scott? Will they play more free? Was Scott holding back certain play calls from his defensive staff?
With far too many questions surrounding this game and the likelihood that it gets out of hand early, SMU can call off the dogs. There’s just too much unknown to think this will reach this lofty total.
Prediction: SMU 42, USF 17
Wisconsin vs. Iowa (Pick)
With a recent offensive explosion, Iowa rides into their meeting with Wisconsin sky-high. Spencer Petras and the Hawkeyes have scored 57 points in their last two games, matching the total of their previous four games combined. In fact, 36.7% of their season point total has been scored in the past two games.
As good as their offense has been, compared to their standards, Iowa’s defense has been even better. They’re the nation’s top defense in limiting yards per play (3.85) and have shared equal amount of success through the air and on the ground.
Against the pass, Iowa has allowed just 5.13 yards per attempt, ranking first in the nation. On run plays, the Hawkeyes give up just 2.63 yards per attempt, ranking fourth in the nation.
They’ve allowed just 13 touchdowns and are holding teams to 264.4 yards per game, both of which rank them third nationally. That includes a second half against Ohio State that dwindled their national rankings.
Graham Mertz will have his work cut out for him despite what is a career year for him at Wisconsin. In all likelihood, this game reaches its total but mainly because of Iowa’s offense, not Wisconsin’s.
Prediction: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 13
Washington (+13) vs. Oregon
It’s a battle of transfer portal quarterbacks as Bo Nix continues his Heisman candidacy with a meeting against Michael Penix Jr. and Washington. Both quarterbacks have had their moments this season, with Nix leading the country in total touchdowns, and Penix chasing the passing yards crown.
Yet, it’s Oregon’s top-ranked offense that will bring the noise against Washington. The Ducks rank first in the conference in yards per pass attempt, showcasing their efficiency this year.
Washington has limited teams very well through the air (third in yards per game allowed at 237.8), but they’ve also been beaten through the air on 20 passing touchdowns, the 10th most in the conference.
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The Huskies will have to rely on Penix to keep this game close. Fortunately for them, he’s been nearly unstoppable this year.
The left-handed gunslinger currently has 3,232 passing yards, second in the country because Kyle Vantrease and Georgia Southern played on Thursday. Penix has thrown for 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has game-changing ability with his left arm and has also run for eight scores in his career.
Washington may not be the deepest team that Oregon has faced this season, but they certainly have the player caliber to keep this game close, as they continue to challenge for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s not quite a trap game for Oregon, as they have Utah next week, but it’s certainly one they can’t let their guard down on if they want to win.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 34
Kansas (+3.5) vs. Texas Tech
As efficient an offense as we’ve seen this year, it could be argued that no team has fared better with a two-quarterback system than Kansas in 2022. Now, they’ve had to do it out of necessity with Jalon Daniels’ injury, but that is by no means a slight towards Jason Bean’s ability this year.
Bean is completing 66% of his throws and has nearly identical numbers to Daniels, who was injured just as he was being mentioned in the Heisman race. Daniels warmed up last week but sat out, and it’s likely he doesn’t play again. Whether he does or doesn’t, the Jayhawks are in prime position to pull off an “upset” against Texas Tech.
What makes Bean a special talent is his track speed and game-breaking ability on the ground. A former track champion in high school, Bean is likely the fastest player on the field, doing so at 6’3″ and 200 pounds.
The Texas Tech defense has struggled to contain opponents’ rushing attacks this season, giving up 4.01 yards per attempt on the ground. That figure ranks them eighth in the Big 12, and they are currently allowing 157.4 rushing yards per game, ninth in the conference.
Bean’s athleticism will take over just like Daniels’ did (or could), and Kansas keeps pace in the Big 12.
Prediction: Kansas 33, Texas Tech 28
