Can the Browns Still Win the AFC North?

The Cleveland Browns keep getting it done. Joe Flacco plus a dominant defense has proven to be a lethal combination, and the Browns have won three straight games to move to 10-5 entering Week 17. Cleveland would be the AFC’s fifth seed if the playoffs started today, but the club still has more work to do.

How secure is the Browns’ playoff spot? Can they catch the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North? With the help of PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s figure out what needs to happen for Cleveland in Week 17.

Cleveland Browns Chances | Week 17 Update

Note that this article was originally published on Thursday, Dec. 28 at 6:30 a.m. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.

After Thursday Night Football, the Browns are now the fifth seed in the AFC with an 11-5 record.

Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)

Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 17

While the Browns haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot, they’re overwhelmingly likely to enter the tournament. Pro Football Network’s simulations give Cleveland a 91.3% chance to make the postseason — the best odds for any AFC team not currently leading its division.

As the fifth seed in the conference standings, the Browns have a one-game advantage over the Buffalo Bills (9-6) and a two-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals, all of whom are 8-7.

Cleveland can secure a playoff berth as soon as Thursday night. If the Browns take down the New York Jets, they will clinch a postseason appearance and at least the No. 5 seed.

But Kevin Stefanksi’s club can still punch its ticket to the dance even if it loses to Gang Green on Thursday. The Browns will clinch a playoff slot if any of the following occur in Week 17:

• Steelers lose/tie
• Jacksonville Jaguars lose/tie
• Bills lose
• Colts lose/tie and Texans lose/tie

If Cleveland ends up as the fifth seed, it will likely play the winner of the AFC South in the first round of the postseason. The Jaguars, Texans, and Colts are currently tied atop the division with matching 8-7 records.

The Browns will not be moved out of the No. 5 slot this week, no matter what happens in Week 17. Even if Cleveland and Buffalo emerge from Sunday’s action with identical 10-6 records, the Browns will remain the fifth seed thanks to their superior mark inside the AFC (7-5 vs. 6-4).

Can the Browns Still Win the AFC North?

Technically, Cleveland still has a shot at the AFC North crown.

However, given that the Browns are two games behind the Ravens with two weeks remaining in the regular season, its odds are understandably thin.

MORE: Cleveland Browns Depth Chart

PFN’s simulations give Cleveland just a 5% chance of overtaking Baltimore.

It’s a simple calculation for Flacco and Co.: The Browns need to win out against the Jets and Bengals while the Ravens lose out against the Miami Dolphins and Steelers. While Cleveland and Baltimore would both finish 12-5 in that scenario, the Browns would win the AFC North thanks to their 4-2 mark in the division.

If Cleveland loses a single game or Baltimore loses a single tilt, the AFC North belongs to the Ravens.

However, if the Browns can hang on to win the division crown, they’ll also have a shot at garnering the AFC’s No. 1 seed — and the first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage that come with it.

To grab the top seed, Cleveland needs to win out, watch Baltimore lose out, and then hope the Dolphins fall to the Bills in Week 18. It’s not an entirely implausible scenario on paper, but PFN gives the Browns just a 1% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed.

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!