Since entering the NFL, Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders has been an efficient runner. Yet, he’s never been able to turn that into fantasy success. After four years with the Philadelphia Eagles, Sanders gets a fresh start in 2023. With minimal touch competition, is there a path for Sanders to finish as a top-10 RB in fantasy football this season?
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Does Miles Sanders Have Top-10 Fantasy Upside?
I was never a fan of Sanders as a prospect or a player. However, it’s impossible to deny how effective he’s been as a runner during the first four years of his career. Yards per carry is certainly not the be-all/end-all of performance metrics, but not many running backs who see the volume Sanders sees are capable of being at 5.0 ypc through 739 career carries.
Of course, sometimes a runner’s effectiveness has more to do with his offensive situation than his talent. For example, Sanders averaged 4.9 ypc last season but averaged just 1.86 yards created per touch, 50th in the league, while his 23% evaded tackles per touch rate was 35th.
Now, to be fair, Sanders was 16th in yards created per touch in 2021 and 24th in 2020. Oftentimes, even efficiency metrics can be influenced by team situation.
With all that said, even elite rushing ability isn’t enough to be a top-10 fantasy running back. And I would stop short of calling Sanders an elite runner. For him to have any realistic shot at a top-10 finish, he needs a path to averaging at least 16.0 fantasy points per game. So far, we haven’t seen anything resembling that.
Sanders’ best fantasy season came in 2020, when he averaged 14.2 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB17. Unsurprisingly, he saw a career-high 12.3% target share that season. Since then, the Eagles deliberately reduced Sanders’ passing-game role, which torpedoed his upside.
Just look at Sanders’ 2022 season. It was, by far, his most effective one on the ground. His 259 carries marked a career-high by 80 carries. His 1,269 rushing yards were 402 more than his second-best season (although that came in 2020 when he played just 12 games). Sanders also set a career-high with 11 touchdowns, following up on his dreadful 2021, where he managed to score zero.
Despite 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, Sanders averaged just 12.7 ppg, finishing as the RB21.
To determine whether a top-10 finish is within Sanders’ range of outcomes, we need to figure out his path to doing so.
Let’s start with the rushing side of things. I have a very hard time projecting Sanders for any meaningful increase on the ground. At 15.2 carries per game, it’s difficult to see him getting more work than that. While the Panthers don’t have the greatest depth at running back with Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear behind him, Duce Staley is a firm believer in using multiple RBs.
At most, we should be projecting Sanders to match last year’s rushing volume. My projections have him slightly lower at 14.9 carries per game, averaging 69.8 yards.
When determining if a player “can” do something, it doesn’t benefit anyone to simply be like, “Well, it’s possible.” We need to remain grounded in reality. Is it technically possible that Sanders averages 17+ carries per game at over five yards per clip? Yes. Is it remotely plausible? No. So, we’re not going to do it.
Therefore, we must move to the next potential room for growth — touchdowns. As mentioned, Sanders scored 11 last year on an elite Eagles offense.
Carolina, on the other hand, enters the season with a rookie starting quarterback in Bryce Young and one of the weakest groups of pass catchers in the league. This doesn’t project to be an explosive offense, nor one that scores a plethora of touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts did steal a bunch of short TDs, but it’s really a stretch to say Sanders can score more on the Panthers. I have him projected for 7.8, but even if we bump that up to 12 or 13, it won’t be anywhere near enough to propel Sanders toward 16.0 ppg.
The only way Sanders can realistically finish as a top-10 fantasy RB is if he sees increased work as a receiver. Normally, we’d look at team tendencies and RB target shares. Unfortunately, we don’t have any of that data to use for the Panthers.
In addition to a rookie QB, Carolina also has a new head coach in Frank Reich. There’s no benefit in reviewing how they used running backs in the passing game the past couple of seasons. As a result, it’s purely projection.
What we do know is how Sanders was used in the passing game. After seeing over a 10% target share in his first two seasons, the Eagles’ coaching staff deliberately reduced Sanders’ role in the next two. Logic suggests there was a reason for that.
Last season, Sanders’ target share bottomed out at 5.2%. In my projections for this season, I bumped that up to 8%. Yet, even that only gets Sanders to 13.2 ppg in my projections. Adding a couple more touchdowns isn’t going to do the trick.
I have Sanders catching about 30 passes for 224 yards. He would have to nearly double that to reach 16 ppg. Is it possible? Well, as Kevin Garnett told us, anything is possible! But is it plausible? Not really.
How Likely Is Miles Sanders To Finish Inside the Top 10?
Given that my projections have Sanders finishing as the RB21, he has a fair amount of ground to make up to get to the top 10. He needs to outperform expectations as a receiver and in the TD department. And he needs to do so while maintaining his rushing efficiency.
Last season, just 4.6% of Sanders’ carries went for at least 15 yards, 29th in the NFL. In 2021, though, that number was 8%, fifth in the league. How do you explain the difference? A lot of it can be the offensive line.
In 2021, the Eagles gave Sanders 3.0 yards before contact. In 2022, that dropped to 2.4. Last season, the Panthers’ offensive line generated just 1.8 yards before contact for D’Onta Foreman and 2.2 for Hubbard. And before you jump to blame Foreman and Hubbard for not being that good, Christian McCaffrey only got 1.9 yards before contact in 2021.
Ultimately, while we can’t rule out Sanders as a top-10 running back, I would consider it a sub-5% outcome. He would need to overperform in rushing volume, rushing efficiency, target share, and total touchdowns, and do so on a team led by a rookie QB with a dearth of offensive talent. It’s almost certainly not happening.
