Our deep dive into each week’s matchups and predictions moves to Week 17 and an AFC West divisional matchup between the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos, who have begun the process of cleaning house.
Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds, key storylines, and game prediction. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. 27.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -13.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +530, Chiefs -750 - Over/Under
44.5 points
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
It’s honestly amazing how much perception changes in such a short time period. Earlier this year, we were touting the Broncos as legitimate rivals to the Chiefs. Not only with a chance to win the division but to make a deep run to the Super Bowl.
Yet, here we are, entering Week 17, and the Broncos have fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett and cleaned house, dismissing several assistant coaches in the process.
Sitting 4-11 and last in the division, the writing was on the wall that a change would occur. However, that timeline was sped up following the very public and widely discussed moments of frustration on Christmas Day, where every TV in the nation got to witness it firsthand.
There is a case to be made that Hackett is being fired because Denver can’t fire Russell Wilson’s contract. But it’s bigger than that. The Broncos mortgaged the farm, including their future draft capital and salary cap space but have little to show for it but frustration.
Not only has the offense looked as pedestrian as possible, but there’s been a trickle effect on the defense, who have had to play an exorbitant amount of snaps due to the offense’s inability to maintain a drive.
Once an impenetrable front to begin the season, the Broncos are 22nd in overall EPA and 21st in EPA per dropback since Week 10. They’ll also likely be without EDGE Randy Gregory this week, who is appealing a one-game suspension levied by the league for his actions in Week 16.
2022 has gone from competing to rebuilding, and it’s up to interim head coach Jerry Rosburg to steady the ship. Rosburg joined the Broncos following Week 2 after assisting with Denver’s game management operations. He is a long-time NFL special teams coordinator and was a member of the Baltimore staff during their 2012 Super Bowl season.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 17
Things cannot be more different for Kansas City. The Chiefs enter the game 12-3, having clinched the AFC West in Week 15 — capturing the title for a record seventh straight time.
Despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes remains unflappable. He’s completed a career-high 66.9% of his passes and leads the NFL in passing yards (4,020) and passing touchdowns (37).
Kansas City is spreading the ball around more, with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerick McKinnon, and Mecole Hardman getting into the mix. However, Travis Kelce is the unquestioned leader of this team, and he’s having one of his best seasons yet.
Kelce’s 135 targets are tied for the fifth most in the NFL, and he leads the position in every category with 97 receptions, 1,257 yards, and 12 touchdowns. In fact, he’s the only tight end who has more than 850 receiving yards.
The defense has also stepped up despite the losses of Charvarius Ward and Tyrann Mathieu in free agency. Since Week 10, Kansas City has been 16th in dropback EPA but fifth in success rate and 15th in DVOA despite teams needing to go up-tempo to keep up with Mahomes and the offense.
These teams matched up back in Week 14 in a surprisingly close 34-28 KC victory. Wilson had one of his best days of the season with three touchdowns and nearly 250 yards, but they were only around because Mahomes threw a season-high three interceptions. I don’t see that happening again this week.
Although I am sure the Broncos players will step up and play for each other despite the circumstances, the tumultuous season and the opponent’s strength will be too much for them to conquer. It will be a long offseason with many questions for the Broncos.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 34, Broncos 14
