Monday Night Football this week will feature arguably the best game of Week 17 when the Buffalo Bills travel to Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Let’s dive into the key NFL betting points and give a Bills vs. Bengals prediction for this week.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are up to date as of Dec. 28.
Bills vs. Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bills -1 - Moneyline
Bills -120, Bengals +100 - Over/Under
49.5
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction
Ladies and gentlemen, may I present to you the crown jewel of Week 17. When Cincinnati hosts the Bills this week, not only will we expect to see a ton of fireworks (something that is evident in the high game total of 49.5), but we will also get a better understanding of what the AFC playoff picture might look like moving forward.
As of right now, the Bills have the all-important No. 1 seed with a 12-3 record, with the Chiefs in the two slot (also with a 12-3 record). Right behind them are the Cincinnati Bengals at 11-4. That means this game could potentially see the Bengals jump all the way to the top seed if the Chiefs somehow lose to the Denver Broncos and the Bengals win at home against the Bills.
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Realistically, the more likely outcome is a Chiefs win this week, and then the Bengals would need to beat the Ravens in Week 18 and hope the Raiders can upset Kansas City at home. If that happens, the Bengals would then slot into the first seed with a 13-4 record.
Back to this game. Both teams come into this matchup playing their best football. The Bengals have won seven straight games, including an impressive win against the red-hot Chiefs. The Bills have won their last six games, but they’ve not looked as impressive doing so with three close wins over AFC East opponents. They did, however, manhandle the Chicago Bears last week 35-13.
With the weather not expected to be an issue in this one, all eyes will be on the home team as they try to continue their hot streak. As the underdog, Cincinnati will need to have the kind of performance they had during the first half of their game against New England last week. Joe Burrow had 28 completions at the half and put up a 22-0 lead. They then imploded in the second half and allowed the Patriots to keep the game close with 18 points.
A big factor here is the Bengals’ offensive line. They lost free agent acquisition La’el Collins to a torn ACL and MCL, an injury that will create a huge hole at right tackle. Burrow is already one of the most-hit QBs in the league, and the Bills will likely take advantage of that right side without Collins.
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Just looking at the numbers here, Cincinnati definitely has the edge. The Bengals are 12-3 against the spread this season, while the Bills are only 7-7-1. Additionally, the underdog is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two teams. The Bills are also 2-5 ATS in their past seven following a win, while the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
I expect Burrow to clean up some of his second-half mistakes from last week and keep this game close. I see a field goal game regardless, but I’ll take the home team with the better ATS record.
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction
Bengals 27, Bills 24
