For Thursday Night Football, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills, as both teams are hoping to bounce back after Week 7 losses. Will the Buccaneers snap their two-game losing streak, or will the Bills avoid falling to .500? The PFN betting team gives their Buccaneers vs. Bills predictions, picks against the spread, and more.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Lines
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
Since the Buccaneers vs. Bills odds came out on Sunday night, Buffalo opened as 7.5-point home favorites. Since then, the line has moved one point in their direction and has settled in at Bills -8.5. The total, however, has pretty much remained the same over the last few days.
- Spread
Bills -8.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +340, Bills -425 - Over/Under
42
Blewis: Both teams are coming off terrible Week 7 losses for different reasons. The Bills were shocked by the New England Patriots, allowing New England their best offensive performance of the season.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lost to the Atlanta Falcons despite three red-zone fumbles from Desmond Ridder, with two of them coming at the goal line.
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Since their Week 5 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars without Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones, the Bills defense ranks 26th in success rate. The offenses they have faced during that stretch? The Jaguars (good), Giants (very bad), and Patriots (also very bad).
I took the Patriots team total over last week at 14.5, and that hit with ease. I’m going to continue to fade this Bills defense and take that same bet with the Buccaneers. My only concern with this play is that unders for prime-time games are 16-7 this season, though they’re just 3-4 on Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Buccaneers over 16.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Blewis: TE Dawson Konx is out indefinitely with a wrist injury, which has opened the door for rookie TE Dalton Kincaid to have a much bigger role in the offense.
So far this season, Kincaid has been extremely efficient when given the opportunity. He has caught 25 of 27 targets and has a 10% higher catch rate than the next closest player at the position with at least 20 targets this season.
My one concern with taking the over on his receiving yards prop is that he has a very low average depth of target at 3.7 — which is 27th out of 29 tight ends with 20 or more targets this season. But that’s why I like his receptions over instead of his receiving yards, even if there’s a lot of juice, but FanDuel is offering a discount compared to DraftKings.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-158 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Dalton Kincaid had the best game of his young career last week (eight catches for 75 yards in New England), and his usage suggests that performances like that might well be the norm, not the exception, moving forward.
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In that loss, the rookie ran a route on 67.4% of his snaps, a rate far superior to Dawson Knox (48.9%). With Buffalo looking to pass when Kincaid is on the field, all catch and yardage props are live. For the season, he owns an aDOT that is 44.8% lower than Knox’s, an advantageous role against the fourth-blitz-happiest defense in the league.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Nearly 74% of Tampa Bay’s yards come through the air (fourth-highest), and while the volume of passes is encouraging, I’m more interested in projecting what those passes look like.
For the season, the Bills defense has the fourth lowest opponent aDOT, something that doesn’t happen by accident. When you combine pass rush with a bend-don’t-break mentality, that isn’t a mistake. Chris Godwin’s aDOT this season is 29.5% lower than Mike Evans’, a role that has enabled him to earn 30 targets over his past three games.
Sep 25, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) warms up before a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Raymond James Stadium.But wait, there’s more. Baker Mayfield’s aDOT this season is 32.4% lower in wins than losses — this team is more consistent when Mayfield takes his medicine, and on a short week, that is my expectation for the plan in this spot against a defense that misses the fourth-most tackles per game.
Pick: Chris Godwin over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bearman: The Bills are unquestionably this year’s “Jekyll and Hyde team.” They looked terrible in a Week 1 loss to the Jets without Aaron Rodgers, look like the best team in the NFL the next three weeks with blowout wins over the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins, then go to London and lose to the Jags, barely escape the one-win Giants, and then get run over by the one-win Patriots. Which is the real Bills team?
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While I think Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Co. have the talent to win the AFC every year, something is off about them, and it starts on the defensive side with injuries to White, Milano, and DaQuan Jones. If the Patriots, who scored 30 combined points in the three previous games, can put up 25 against you, there is a problem.
The Bucs have their own issues, somehow losing at home to the Falcons last week, coming on the heels of losing to the Lions the previous week. Do I think they will win? No. Do I think 8.5 is way too many points? Absolutely yes.
I’m just not in a place where I can lay 8.5 with how Buffalo is playing. I also like the Kincard over in this spot, but Soppe and Blewis covered all angles there.
Pick: Buccaneers +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
