This 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction could have implications for how many NFC West teams are represented in the postseason. The Seattle Seahawks are exceeding expectations, even as they attempt to stay above .500. Geno Smith is leading a better-than-expected offense that is inside of the top 10 in points scored per minute of possession time.
The San Francisco 49ers are 2-0 over the past two weeks, being led by 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. Last week, the team had their third-best points-per-minute output of the season. Thursday Night, Purdy comes into one of the toughest environments in football in a game that could clinch the 49ers a playoff berth. Let’s take a look at the 49ers vs. Seahawks odds and see if we can find the value for where the money should flow.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Odds | Week 15
- Spread: 49ers -3
- Moneyline: 49ers -190
- Over/Under: Over 43.5
49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction
December has been a bit tricky for the model to figure out, as teams have had some pretty wild outliers. For the season, the model is 53.5% of the time within three points of a team’s actual final score. Last week was the model’s first losing week of the season. Still, for the season, the model is 77-39-5* on bets against the spread and on the moneyline. Let’s see if we can get back on track.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit.
Using the Behavior Bets sports betting model, and analyzing the consistency of both teams behaviorally, finding value in this San Francisco vs. Seattle prediction is what we’re going to dive into. We’ll examine the rate at which both teams are scoring and giving up points, as well as how much opportunity each team will give the other offense with the ball.
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The Seattle Seahawks have been downright impressive this season on offense despite coming out of an offseason where they traded the best quarterback in franchise history away and where it seemed they would be punting on the season. Yet punting is what they’ve done the 5th fewest times in the entire league (45) and is a metric by which the team they traded Russell Wilson to is leading the league (79).
The Seahawks are averaging .861 points per minute of possession time. That’s good enough for 7th in the NFL. They lead the league in games over one full point per minute of possession time with six, including two of their last three. Journeyman Geno Smith is sixth in the league in passing yards and has 25 touchdowns. This is not your older brother’s Geno Smith.
On Thursday, however, he is going up against the fifth-most efficient point-scoring defense in the NFL. The 49ers are holding teams to just over half a point per minute of possession time. Possession time is something the 49ers have excelled at limiting. They are third in the league in overall average opponent possession time at 27:27 of game time. However, when they are on the road, it’s a very different story.
On the road, they allow opponents to have the ball for over half the game. That hasn’t hurt them too badly, as they have averaged giving up only 16.7 points per game in their last four road games. It should be noted that three of those four games were against three of the five worst point-scoring offenses in the league.
Thursday night, they are going against a team that scores just upwards of .7 more points than those three teams do per minute of possession. The problem for Seattle is they don’t hold onto the ball for very long as it is. They have the worst time of possession of any offense in the league (second worst at home). They’ll need as many opportunities as they can to score enough points in this one.
Mr. Irrelevant Keeping 49ers Offense Relevant
The 49ers’ offense is being led by Brock Purdy, who, just in case you haven’t heard, was 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. Jimmy Garoppolo is most likely out for the season, and San Francisco’s playoff success may live or die on the arm of Purdy. In his first full start, he guided the offense to its third-highest points-per-minute output of the year, scoring 1.1 points per minute of possession time.
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San Francisco doesn’t need him to be stellar, just to manage the offense. Last week, Christian McCaffery averaged over eight yards per carry, and Purdy threw two touchdown passes. That type of balance will get the job done more often than not.
The Seahawks have given up the second-most rushing yards this season. Nothing controls the clock more than a run game that can get chunk yardage. Seattle’s defense is dead last in opponent time of possession allowed and second to last in opponent time of possession allowed at home. Not what they need coming into this game against this team.
49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction: 49ers 25 , Seahawks 20
