Florida’s one-year starter at QB is likely the most controversial name among the top four quarterbacks in the NFL draft. What Anthony Richardson landing spots are most frequented in PFN mock draft simulations? But even more important than where Richardson ends up is how he fits in the locations that users have selected him to visit most frequently.
Anthony Richardson Landing Spots Based on MDS Data
Note: The % is based on how often the player is selected by users drafting for that specific team. It does not represent a rate based on the below dataset alone.
For example, dividing Indianapolis’ 9,267 selections of Richardson by 0.352 will give the total number of mock draft simulations where users picked for the Colts. So each percentage is based on user picks for that team alone, making them independent from each other.
Colts – 9,267 (35.2%)
Seahawks – 3,654 (3.7%)
Raiders – 2,252 (6.3%)
Texans – 1,993 (2.8%)
Panthers – 1,399 (4.7%)
The biggest surprise, although also understandable, was that the Detroit Lions weren’t included in the dataset, which means their fans and other analysts must not be thinking that would be a good spot for him to land.
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Nevertheless, the Lions may be the perfect spot for Richardson, who would be able to sit for a year and really sharpen his lower body mechanics. Detroit could then save $20 million against the cap in 2023 by parting ways with Jared Goff. Yet, they’d also have the flexibility to sit Richardson for even longer because Goff is under contract until after 2024.
Goff is the present, and he performed very well a season ago with a great roster surrounding him. But Richardson has an unimaginable ceiling and brings a ceiling to the Lions — and frankly, most franchises — that they cannot fathom at the moment.
Indianapolis Colts
Although Indianapolis would be one of the few potential landing spots in the top 10 for Richardson, where playing right away would be likely, it’s still a magnificent fit. Head coach Shane Steichen’s offense couldn’t be more perfect for Richardson if he uses a similar approach as he did for the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles.
Colts mock drafters see the vision. Many see Richardson as a raw, mechanically-flawed, and inaccurate passer. And while there is certainly some merit to this, there’s nothing binary about the game of football.
Two players can have the same completion or on-target rate with the same aDOT and generally the same offense. While general accuracy cannot necessarily be improved, inaccuracies because of mechanical issues can be, and often are.
We’ve seen Josh Allen and Dak Prescott improve their accuracy and ball placement over the years as they ironed out their lower body mechanics. Richardson’s accuracy and ball-placement issues are two-fold.
MORE: Colts Land Anthony Richardson in Latest 2023 NFL Mock Draft
First, he’s simply inexperienced. As he has more time on task, he should continuously get a better feel for time and space at the NFL level. The college game is far different from high school, and the jump to the pros is even greater.
Second, he’s actually pretty good mechanically speaking from the waist up. And lower body mechanics are much easier to play with and improve.
“There are plays and throws all over the tape that scream top pick, top of the draft pick,” Panthers head coach Frank Reich told reports during the NFL’s Annual League Meeting.
“That’s a credit to him. I think he has upper body mechanics that are really solid. Obviously, his completion percentage is lower than you want at this level, but I don’t get too discouraged [about] things like that. I see a lot of upside. Talking to him a little bit at the Combine, you could tell how smart of a guy he is. A guy like that, without totally getting into it, the more experience he gets, he’s a guy that you feel like he’s going to get better fast.”
I’m just an analyst who spends his spare time consuming all things football that played the game through high school. But Reich played the game at the highest level and is now coaching it at that level.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was fantastic a season ago. Although he just signed a large contract extension with the Seahawks, Seattle is realistically able to get out of that deal after just one season if they really want to.
Although Richardson is a 1-of-1 athlete, he’s like Geno in that while being a great athlete, he’s a pocket passer first and foremost. If Smith were up to the task of mentoring, Richardson could learn quite a bit from Smith’s unique journey along the way.
Additionally, having arguably the best ball tracker in the NFL with receiver Tyler Lockett and one of the greatest athletes in the game at receiver in DK Metcalf, would give the young Richardson some outstanding weapons to choose from early in his career.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jimmy Garoppolo is in a similar situation to Smith. His contract has a realistic out after a year. While the cap-hit-to-cap-savings ratio isn’t as good as it is for Seattle, it’s realistic.
But there’s also another reason why Las Vegas should consider drafting Richardson if he’s there at No. 9. Garoppolo doesn’t stay healthy. He’s played a full season only once in his career. Other years include an ACL tear in 2018, a high ankle sprain in 2020 that ended his season, a shoulder sprain that required offseason surgery in 2021, and then a foot fracture that forced him to miss the rest of the regular season in 2022.
Richardson is a complete departure from Garoppolo stylistically. While that complicates things from a game-planning perspective, Josh McDaniels is already one of the best run-game architects in the league. If he can’t figure out how to use Richardson’s arm and legs, I’d be shocked.
Houston Texans
Landing spots are incredibly important for any player, but quarterbacks specifically. The situation they find themselves in can have more of an impact on their successes and failures than any other factor, including their own talent.
The Texans are rebuilding, but those offensive weapons do not scream QB-ready. They’ll almost certainly draft one of them with the No. 2 overall pick, but the path to success for that quarterback will be rockier and more winding than most.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is young, but he flew through the ranks in San Francisco. The 35-year-old went from offensive assistant to passing game coordinator in the span of four years. And he led a successful passing attack with Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy.
So while the talent may not be akin to the 49ers, the offensive structure might make things easier on the young passer. But it would have been really awesome to see what Slowik and Kyle Shanahan could have done with Trey Lance, a prospect with similar arm talent and running ability to Richardson, for a full season.
Carolina Panthers
We won’t know how things will shake out in Carolina until the draft rolls around. Heck, even Frank Reich and Scott Fitterer haven’t discussed their QB preferences yet.
“Frank and I had that conversation in his office. I said, ‘Don’t tell me who you like until we get down to it,’” Fitterer said Monday during a break at the NFL owners meetings. “As you go through the process, it gets more and more clear. But we’re still going through that.”
Mock drafters certainly believe the pick will be C.J. Stroud. He’s the pick in 65.1% of Panthers’ user mock drafts. Bryce Young is second in the clubhouse at 22.7%, while Richardson comes in third at just 4.7%.
MORE: Is Anthony Richardson Really in Play for Carolina Panthers at 1?
It makes sense. Richardson’s athletic ceiling certainly is tantalizing. And while many believe he’s a high-risk player, his rushing ability probably sets his floor somewhere close to what we saw from Justin Fields before Luke Getsy decided maybe we should let the athlete be an athlete and tell him to run more.
But Stroud and Young are so clean as prospects it’s hard to roll the dice on the bigger project overall. It would simply take a bit more vision.
There’s also the voice in the back of my head saying, “Reich has never coached a QB under 6-foot-4 in his life.” And while Richardson feels risky, is it riskier than drafting a legitimate size outlier at QB?
