The XFL is back. Is it better than ever? We’re about to find out. If you’re looking to wager on XFL Week 1 picks against the spread, as well as moneylines, then you’ve come to the right place. The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
XFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions, and Betting Odds
As I’ve written many times, each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge?
Week 1 of the XFL, however, poses unique challenges. After nearly three years of dormancy, the league has no direct continuity with past seasons. We’re starting from scratch, in a sense, without a framework for understanding how each set of newly formed teammates will play together.
With that in mind, here are our recommendations, which are based on the intel gathered heading into Week 1.
Vegas Vipers (+2) vs. Arlington Renegades
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 18
- Start time: 3 p.m. ET
The Renegades’ Bob Stoops is the only head coach holdover from the 2020 campaign. That continuity might be key in this season opener. However, Vegas signed NFL Hall of Famer Rod Woodson to helm their team. Woodson is one of several notable names to take on head coaching duties in this third iteration of the XFL.
I’m intrigued by the Renegades’ recent release of former NFL backup RB Kenneth Farrow, suggesting that Arlington has enough depth at running back to abandon the experienced 29-year-old.
MORE: XFL Championship Odds 2023
Also, keep an eye on who starts (and finishes) at quarterback for the Renegades. Kyle Sloter presumably has the inside track, though Stoops has hyped Drew Plitt and Kevin Anderson as well.
The Vipers, meanwhile, might have the most NFL-experienced WR duo in the league in Martavis Bryant and Geronimo Allison. But can former Division II QB Luis Perez — or his main competition, the 27-year-old Jalan McClendon — capitalize on these weapons?
Against-the-spread prediction: Renegades
Moneyline winner: Renegades
Orlando Guardians (Pick’em) vs. Houston Roughnecks
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 18
- Start time: 8:30 p.m. ET
The two biggest long shots to win the championship face off. In a reunion of sorts, the Guardians pair former Bronco teammates Paxton Lynch and Cody Latimer. Notably, one of Latimer’s best performances occurred when Lynch started . . . and then was benched for Trevor Siemian, who proceeded to find Latimer for three receptions, 48 yards, and a touchdown.
During their NFL careers, Lynch targeted Latimer three times, connecting once for 10 yards. This might be a case of hype far exceeding reality, especially with buzz that Orlando’s offensive line needs work.
The good news is that Houston’s pass rush seemingly isn’t much better, while the Roughnecks’ potential over-reliance on undersized RB Adrian Killins — their first draft pick among offensive playmakers last fall — presents the biggest X-factor of this contest.
Against-the-spread prediction: Guardians
Moneyline winner: Guardians
St. Louis Battlehawks (-2) vs. San Antonio Brahmas
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 19
- Start time: 3 p.m. ET
First of all, hats off to the San Antonio club for naming its team after the Hindu god of creation. No, wait . . . it’s named for a bull. Either way, the XFL has come a long way since promoting hitmen, enforcers, and demons 22 years ago. Progress, people. Progress.
This game could come down to how effectively former NFL QB A.J. McCarron feeds his speedy receivers, led by No. 2 overall draft pick (in the offensive skills portion of the draft) Marcell Ateman.
On the other side of the ball, does former fourth-round draft pick Kalen Ballage have juice to lead an XFL backfield? His career 3.1 yards per carry at the NFL level left much to be desired, though his usage in the passing game could give QB Jack Coan a much-needed safety valve.
Against-the-spread prediction: Battlehawks
Moneyline winner: Battlehawks
Seattle Sea Dragons (-2) vs. D.C. Defenders
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 19
- Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Seattle has the second-best odds of winning the championship, right behind the Renegades. Of course, we should take that with a grain of salt — or perhaps 20 grains. It matters, in that there are reasons to get excited about the Sea Dragons.
At their best, Seattle’s QB-WR combo of Ben DiNucci and Josh Gordon could light up the league. At their worst, the experiment could flop in what could be a pass-first, pass-last, boom-bust offense.
MORE: 2023 XFL Rosters
Meanwhile, D.C. has three QBs still competing for playing time, which might or might not be a good sign on the eve of Week 1. Expect a run-heavy effort for the Defenders, anchored by Abram Smith and perhaps a little Ryquell Armstead and Artavis Pierce. All three RBs have served on NFL rosters, with Armstead leading the way on experience (67 NFL touches).
Against-the-spread prediction: Sea Dragons
Moneyline winner: Sea Dragons
