This Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars prediction will forecast who could win the AFC South and host a home playoff game in just over a week. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is in the running for Coach of the Year. This team was mired in dysfunction a year ago amid one of the most disgraceful coaching tenures in NFL history.
Now, they will host a playoff game…
…according to the Behavior Bets sports betting model projection, that is. The Titans will be starting Josh Dobbs for a second straight week — likely not how coach Mike Vrabel envisioned this season unfolding to this moment.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Odds | Week 18
- Spread: Jaguars -6.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars -278
- Over/Under: Under 39.5*
*The Behavior Bets sports betting model projects a point total of 39. The .5 margin is too close to call within the margin of error, which means I did not personally place this bet.
Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model went 18-14 in Week 17. For the season, the model is 137-68-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going with this Tennessee vs. Jacksonville prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
The Jaguars have grown by 12% in scoring rate since the bye week. Prior to then, they were averaging .757 points per minute of possession time, which would be good enough for 16th in the league. Now, they are up to .844 points per minute of possession time, which ranks them inside the top 10.
Doug Pederson has done a remarkable job with this team. All that stands in his way of a playoff berth in his first season as coach is annual Coach of the Year candidate Mike Vrabel.
MORE: Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 18
Vrabel has helped construct and lead a Titans defense that is among the best in the league and has been the soul of the team. They are eighth in the league in scoring behavior rate allowed since their bye week, surrendering .614 points per minute of opponent possession time.
However, as the weeks have gone on, it’s been trending in the wrong direction. They have been giving up 48% more points per minute week over week. This can be attributed to Ryan Tannehill’s injury and more of the responsibility being placed on them. As they get set to start Josh Dobbs — the third starter of the season for them — they could be getting worn down.
The offense has not been able to hold the ball, and the defense has been on the field for more than half the game. They were on the field for over 34 minutes last week. The Jaguars won’t be a reprieve. They are projected to score 25 points in this one.
The Josh Dobbs Effect
Bettors should not read this to imply the Josh Dobbs effect is a good one. The Titans would rather not be starting their third quarterback of the season (one who was on the practice squad two weeks ago). They definitely would rather not be starting him over their perfectly healthy rookie quarterback.
Yet, here they are in a win-or-go-home Week 18 scenario starting Josh Dobbs. Last week in his first start, the Titans scored less than half a point per minute of possession time. That’s even more glaring considering they only had the ball for roughly 28 minutes.
Dobbs put up over 230 yards, but it took him 40 attempts. On Saturday, he’ll be facing a Jacksonville defense coming off of its best two weeks of the season, in which it allowed only .1 point per minute of possession time. In those games, they also faced less-than-stellar quarterback play facing Davis Mills and Zach Wilson.
The model doesn’t see this turning out in Josh Dobbs’ favor. The Titans are projected to only score 14 points, giving the AFC South to Jacksonville.
Titans and Jaguars Prediction: Titans 14, Jaguars 25
