Week 15 of the fantasy football season is upon us. This week on Amazon Prime, we get a game between two NFC West rivals as the San Francisco 49ers will travel up north to take on the Seattle Seahawks. With no time to waste, here are the top start/sit plays for Week 15 of Thursday Night Football.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
2022 has been a revelation for Geno Smith, as he’s been one of the consistent performers this year. Smith had three touchdown passes in Week 14 and now has two or more in seven consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL. He has career highs in completions (306), passing yards (3,433), and touchdown passes (25).
However, we know the difficulty of this matchup. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and since Week 10, they are first in success rate and second in EPA. Given the likelihood of Seattle struggling to run the ball, it will be in Smith’s hands most of the game. He comes in as a high-end QB2/low-end QB1 for Thursday Night Football in Week 15.
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Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
We’re seeing exactly what we always dreamed of when we imagined what it would be like if Christian McCaffrey played in an explosive offense. In his three games without Elijah Mitchell, McCaffrey has averaged 22.3 touches and 149.3 total yards while playing on a roughly 70% of the snaps.
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He is receiving elite utilization out of the backfield with a 19.4% target share and comes in this week as my overall RB1. Since Week 10, Seattle’s defense is 30th in success rate, 31st in EPA, and 31st in explosive run rate. Throw in a unit that is surrendering the sixth-most receptions and the third-most yards to running backs, and McCaffrey could single-handedly win playoff matchups this week.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiuyk had a team-high 57 receiving yards and recorded his career-high seventh receiving touchdown of the season last week. He has five receiving touchdowns in his last three road games, and with Deebo Samuel out this week, he will have to be a significant target.
His utilization is elite, as Aiyuk has a 21.3% target share and a 30.2% air-yard share. So far, with BrockPurdy under center, he has a 19.4% target share while averaging six targets and 51.5 receiving yards. The matchup against rookie CB Tariq Woolen is undoubtedly tricky, and we need to double-check when it gets closer to game time on the status of Purdy. But assuming the rookie QB starts, Aiyuk is a low-end WR2.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
You can’t stop D.K. Metcalf; you can only hope to contain him. He sits No. 7 amongst wide receivers with a 26.4% target share and a 50% end zone target share while also recording a 37.7% air-yard share (11th).
Metcalf recorded his sixth receiving touchdown of the season last week and boosted his total to 869 receiving yards. He needs just 31 more on Thursday Night Football to become the fifth player since 1970 with 900+ receiving yards and five or more touchdowns in each of their first four seasons. He has five games straight of 70 more receiving yards and seven games straight with five or more receptions. Metcalf is a locked-in WR2 for fantasy.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
I was down on Tyler Lockett coming into the year, and even his Grandpa let me know about that. True story. It was never based on talent or skill set; that’s unquestionable. My concern stemmed from the likely drop-off in quarterback play. What I didn’t know was that Smith was going to take this offense to a whole new level.
He has a 23.6% target share and a 32.5% air-yard share and is on pace for nearly 1,175 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. It’s also a great matchup for him, as Lockett dominates against zone coverage. While Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir are one of the better duos, few cornerbacks can contain Lockett. He’s a high-end WR2 in Week 15 for fantasy football.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Last week, George Kittle became the fifth tight end in NFL history with 500 or more receiving yards in each of his first six seasons, and he only needs 11 more receiving yards to become the sixth TE ever with 5,000 receiving yards in their first six career seasons.
The last time these teams met on the road, Kittle had an absurd day with nine receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns. We also should expect an increase in Kittle’s 16.7% target share with Samuel out.
In his six games without Samuel in the lineup, Kittle has gone from averaging 13.0 PPR points to 15.7 PPR points per game. He is a top-five TE this week against a Seattle defense that ranks 27th in DVOA while allowing the fifth-most receiving yards in the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy deserves massive credit for what he’s done over the past few weeks. Going from near-UDFA to beating Tom Brady in your first-ever start is a heck of a career arc.
In his first two NFL games, Purdy has finished as the QB18 and QB6 while sitting 23rd in yards per attempt and is looking to make it three in a row with multiple passing touchdowns.
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As I mentioned with Aiyuk, we have to make sure Purdy will be good to go, as he is dealing with oblique and rib injuries he suffered last week. Throw in only four days to prepare for one of the most hostile NFL environments, and it will undoubtedly be a challenge for Purdy. However, he comes in as a mid-QB2 for fantasy. He’s a viable option in 2QB or Superflex leagues.
Kenneth Walker III, DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, RBs, Seattle Seahawks
I’m going to make this simple and group everyone together because, at the moment, I don’t have a single clue who is lining up in the backfield this week.
Kenneth Walker III missed last week’s game and has been labeled day-to-day as he works to come back from an ankle injury. The signs are positive, but until we know for certain, I can’t recommend you lock him into your lineups. If he does play, I would start him as a lower-end RB2 with upside just because I’d be concerned about a potential re-injury and a difficult matchup.
DeeJay Dallas doesn’t appear likely to play and has been a non-participant in practice. Seattle will go to Travis Homer and Tony Jones Jr. in what was a fiasco last week. All of last week, I went in with the notion that Homer would be the starting running back, but then Adam Schefter reported Tony Jones Jr. was expected to be the starting running back early on Sunday morning.
Yeah, about that. Homer played on 91% of the snaps with 11 touches for 34 total yards. I’m not saying that’s good, but the note about Jones was still wrong. I don’t want anything to do with any Seattle running back not named Walker. And that doesn’t just go for this week against the 49ers, who are second in rushing yards, fourth in EPA, and seventh in success rate. That’s for the entire season. For me, it’s Walker or bust.
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
With Mitchell unavailable, Jordan Mason has been a welcome surprise. Over the last two weeks, he’s had a 24% snap share while averaging 9.5 rushes and 53.5 rushing yards per game.
However, he is also still waiting for his first red-zone carry, as it’s not really the brightest idea in most cases to pull McCaffrey off the field in high-leverage situations. With that said, I could see Mason scoring his first touchdown this week. Mason is a low-end RB4 that I wouldn’t be overly excited about as a flex play.
Will Dissly and Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Look, I’m sure they’re both great guys, but I am not touching them with a 39 and 1/2 foot pole. Over the last three games, none of Noah Fant, Will Dissly, nor Colby Parkinson has recorded anything higher than an 8.2% target share, and it’s become a disastrous three-way timeshare.
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Ideally, it would be Fant leading the way, given his athletic profile, but the only two pass catchers to worry about for Seattle are Lockett and Metcalf. Throw in an absolutely awful matchup against the sixth-ranked defense in DVOA to the position, and you’re far better off taking a shot on someone like Chigoziem Okonkwo this week.
