If you’re making San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL DFS picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
49ers Considerations
With Deebo Samuel poised to return — borrowing from the often misunderstood Emperor Palpatine — we’re about to “experience the full power of the” 49ers.
Consider this team’s ups and downs in only half a season. In Week 1, Elijah Mitchell goes down. George Kittle misses the first two games. In Week 2, Trey Lance gets knocked out for the season, and the team is forced to return to Jimmy Garoppolo, whom many believed the Niners would have already traded away.
That’s a lot of drama in the first couple of games.
But the midseason acquisition of Christian McCaffrey — an absolute coup by any metric — has transformed this playoff contender into a Super Bowl contender.
Samuel arguably was last year’s offensive centerpiece, surrounded by the exceptionally talented Mitchell and Kittle, as well as the gradually ascending Brandon Aiyuk and surprising contributor Jauan Jennings. But the team’s identity has shifted. We might argue the offense now runs through McCaffrey. Unquestionably. For as long as his body holds up.
That’s the key to the construction of today’s DFS lineup. We can still bet on Samuel. We might bet on another receiver. But leaving out McCaffrey presents more risks than rewards.
Chargers Considerations
Will the Chargers get blown out? While studying this game all week, I haven’t found a realistic path for an LA win or even a narrow defeat. They don’t have Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. Joshua Palmer is talented, but he alone can’t elevate this passing attack, which might rely too heavily on DeAndre Carter and Gerald Everett.
Oh, and of course, there’s Austin Ekeler. We’d need to pay a lot to put him in this lineup. In a close game, it might be justified. While he’s often tanked on the ground this season (3.1 yards per carry if we exclude Week 5), arguably, no RB brings more excitement through the air.
And yet, what if the game isn’t close? What if San Francisco’s elite run defense and often stifling pass defense forces several three-and-outs for a beleaguered Justin Herbert and his remaining playmakers?
MORE: Early Week 10 Bargain DFS Targets
The fact is, the Niners can score quickly and in buckets. The Chargers’ defense can’t reasonably hold them to under 28 points, in my opinion.
As a result, if the 49ers are up 17 points in the third quarter, at what point might we see more Isaiah Spiller? If it’s looking bleak for the Chargers early in the fourth, would they bench Herbert to ensure he doesn’t get hurt in a game they can no longer win?
That’s the direction I’m headed in — one where we cannot trust any Charger to exceed DFS-pricing expectations. Therefore, it’s essential that we load up on elite Niner talent.
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing FanDuel “MVP” mode, which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus four Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,000)
Quite possibly, the Week 10 RB1. While nothing’s guaranteed, he’s primed for another big performance.
Flex: Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($13,500)
It’s often risky to start someone who’s returning from an injury, but Samuel brings the kind of elite ceiling we can’t ignore. He can do it on the ground and in the passing game. At least one score seems likely.
Flex: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($12,000)
Will he take a step back with Samuel on the field? Probably not. Aiyuk is here to stay, and his prospects look brighter knowing the Chargers might overcommit to try (in vain?) to stop the run.
Flex: 49ers D/ST ($9,500)
I’m all in on the 49ers’ defense tonight. Unless Ekeler has the game of his life, I don’t see how LA scores more than 14 points, and I’d be shocked if this unit has any less than three sacks and two turnovers.
Flex: WR Michael Bandy, Chargers ($7,500)
With $8,900 remaining, we need one Charger. While Michael Bandy might not be a top-four producer for the Chargers in this one, his price enables us to land four elite-upside 49ers. So we take a small hit here for the chance at a larger payoff.
