Somehow, this Thursday Night Football prediction features a team that, if they win, will be in first place ten weeks into the season and NOT be above .500. The other team, if they win, will still be alive in the division while being four games under .500. Such is life in this year’s NFC south, and more specifically, in this Falcons vs. Panthers matchup.
Using my sports betting model, we predict a winner in a division that many will ask — does it matter?
The Behavior Bets model started November with a winning record, +42.73% ROI, and a profit of 13.5 units. Let’s keep it rolling this week with this Falcons vs. Panthers prediction. For a full breakdown of that record and my full Week 10 slate, be sure to download the Pikkit app for free.
Against the Spread
Panthers +2.5
Over/Under
Over 42.5
Moneyline
Panthers +122
Confidence Rating
Cautious
Final Score Projection
Carolina 23 – Atlanta 21
Which Panthers’ Defense Will We See Against the Falcons?
According to my sports betting model, the Atlanta Falcons have been one of the more stagnant teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball. On offense, they are seeing no growth or acceleration in the rate at which they score points. Sporting a celeration rate of ÷1.16, they are actually slowing down, or decaying, the pace they are scoring week over week at a rate of 13%.
We have also seen an increase in their bounce rate, or consistency, week over week to x2. The first four weeks of the season saw Atlanta’s point totals all within four points of each other. The following five weeks saw a variance of 19 points between their highest and lowest point totals. Slowing down and becoming less predictable is not what you want to be doing heading into the second half of the season.
They will be going up against a Carolina Panthers defense that likewise has seen some stagnation in the rate at which they are giving up points. They are seeing slight growth week over week (not what a defense wants to see in the rate they are giving up points) at a rate of 4%.
MORE: NFL Picks and Predictions For All Week 10 Games
More alarming is their bounce rate. It is more than twice as inconsistent as Atlanta’s offense, with a rate of x5. There is a 39-point difference between their highest and lowest point total, and those two games happened in just the last three weeks. The outcome of this game will likely depend on which Carolina defense shows up vs. the Falcons.
With a final score projection of Carolina winning 23 to 21, The Panthers getting 2.5 points makes them the selection against the spread. I placed my bet with the Panthers getting +3, and the line has moved since then.
Likewise, with Carolina being projected to win, they were the pick on the moneyline with odds of +135 when I placed my bet. It’s now at +122. Anytime the model predicts a winner who the sportsbooks are giving points to, that’s the moneyline pick for me.
The final score is projected to total 44 points. Right now, the Over/Under is 42.5 points. That is a slim 1.5-point margin where a rogue field goal could swing the difference. That’s a bit too risky for a confident play. But if you’re feeling lucky, take the over, especially if the wrong version of the Carolina defense shows up.
As mentioned, both teams sport bounce rates, or consistency scores, well outside of my high confidence thresholds (anything above x2). The Panthers have one in the red zone due to a x5 bounce rate. Of the eight data points that make up the confidence criteria, there are four greens, three yellows, and one red. Anytime there is a red, it gets a cautious rating.
*Thursday Night Football bets are all made using the Caesars Sportsbook. To track these bets, follow along on PFN’s number one rated best bet tracking app, Pikkit.
