If you’re playing a Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Cowboys Considerations
For starters, this game has the makings of a 5-1 DFS split. Some of you know what I’m talking about. A 5-1 DFS split means choosing five players from one team — generally, a squad expected to dominate on offense (and often on defense) — leaving only one slot for a player on the opposing team.
Blowouts offer major benefits to 5-1 lineups, provided we choose the right breakout players. Often it means taking at least three players in the passing game, at least one in the backfield. Sometimes a D/ST is included, and occasionally a kicker.
But I prefer taking kickers only in low-scoring contests because most kickers’ ceilings top out at 17-18 points. In one-sided, high-scoring games, there might be four or more 20+ point scorers.
Dak Prescott is back, his receiving corps is largely healthy, and his backfield hasn’t had this much clarity since the last time Ezekiel Elliott was sidelined in Week 15 of 2020. More on that further below.
Bears Considerations
What is the DNA of the Bears’ offense? Is this a unit that will grow together for the next one or two years, developing into a playoff contender?
Probably not. As I wrote this summer for PFN Pass subscribers, Darnell Mooney is miscast as a No. 1 receiver. He’s better suited as a No. 2 in a proficient passing offense. We’re witnessing the ripple effect of a franchise that tried to patch together a receiving corps, while largely ignoring one of their top pass catchers — home-grown tight end Cole Kmet.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8
It’ll be tough to trust any Bear against the more cohesive Cowboys, which boast a defense that should largely shut down Chicago’s running game. Dallas has yielded only two rushing TDs on a decent 4.4 yards per carry. Assuming the Cowboys take a commanding lead by the third quarter, Justin Fields will be forced to pass more than the team probably wants him to.
If we want to conserve DFS funds for high-flying Dallas playmakers, then we’ll need to go relatively cheap with the Bears. That might mean identifying a little-used, cheap receiver and hope for one or two big receptions.
Top DFS Lineup for Cowboys vs. Bears
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: Cowboys D/ST ($8,100)
As I begin to write this section, Tony Pollard was poised to take the Captain slot. But to make this lineup work within the salary cap, I decided the cheaper Cowboys D/ST belongs here, instead. They have the personnel to thrive against a QB who’s already thrown six picks while taking an NFL-high 27 sacks.
Flex: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($11,000)
Of course. With so few reliable Bears options, we can load up on more high-upside Cowboys.
Flex: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($10,600)
Of course, again. In his third start of the season — and second since getting hurt in Week 1 — Prescott is rounding back into form. While Chicago’s yielding the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, these quarterbacks have included Bailey Zappe, Mac Jones, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills, as well as Trey Lance in horrible field conditions.
So let’s keep some perspective on Chicago’s supposedly seventh-ranked (according to DraftKings) defense versus quarterbacks. Prescott should get his points.
Flex: QB Justin Fields, Bears ($10,000)
I should be more excited to invest in Fields. I’m not. But there aren’t any other trusted 10+ point options on the Bears. “What about David Montgomery,” you ask? If Dallas jumps out to a two-touchdown lead by the middle of the second quarter, I’m concerned Montgomery will be phased out.
Flex: RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($9,000)
The last time Pollard started for an injured Elliott (in 2020), the younger RB rattled off a 12-69-2 rushing line and 6-63-0 receiving line versus the 49ers. That season, San Francisco boasted one of the best run defenses based on opposing yards per carry and rushing TDs.
Pollard’s 30+ point fantasy performance was an anomaly for his opponent, but it was completely understandable for those who’d followed his brief career. Today, it’s obvious to nearly everyone that he could break out against a defense yielding the most rushing yards and third-most rushing TDs.
Flex: TE Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($800)
Dalton Schultz apparently isn’t yet at 100%, and next week is Dallas’ bye week. In a convincing win, the Cowboys will have no good reason to overwork Schultz. I expect rookie Jake Ferguson to get at least three looks, and at this price, he’s a great roll of the dice.
