If you’re playing a Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Rams Considerations
Some machines are programmed to learn. All NFL coaches are paid to learn.
During their bye week, the Rams watched Kansas City dismantle the 49ers’ defense, which had been one of the league’s most fearsome. A week earlier, Atlanta shockingly handed San Francisco a home loss while racking up 28 points.
In that Atlanta game, the Falcons opted not to go for a long field goal in the fourth quarter. Had Younghoe Koo gotten the chance, he could have lifted his team to 31 points — their most since Week 12 of the 2020 season.
This context is key. Atlanta shouldn’t have done so well on the road against a defense that had given up only 12.6 points per game. Presumably, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and his staff took some things away from that upset and used them against the Niners the following week.
So as bad as the Rams’ offense has looked this year, don’t underestimate the probability that they’ve assessed how to break through the 49ers’ defense. It doesn’t mean they’ll be any more successful than in their last meeting, when LA produced a measly nine points. But it does mean we should expect changes.
For Atlanta, Mariota threw only 14 passes, choosing his spots while letting the running game wear down their opponent. Kansas City adopted the opposite approach, beating the Niners through the air. Both strategies proved successful.
The problem with the Rams thus far has been Matthew Stafford’s erratic throwing (leading to eight interceptions) and, at times, unusually poor decision-making in the pocket. For example, he’s been sacked only three times in three wins, compared to 19 times in three losses.
Applying this to our DFS lineup, we can envision the Rams trying desperately to establish the run. Will they be successful against San Francisco’s elite run defense? Probably not. So Darrell Henderson Jr. probably will be a fade. But if their strategy works, and if Stafford can make better throws after an extended break, then we should see a more effective passing attack.
49ers Considerations
Despite losing two straight games, the 49ers have the personnel to score 30+ points on LA. But the Rams have been quite good against the pass, yielding fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
The Niners are a fascinating team to bet on in DFS. They have three very capable receivers, a slightly above-average (statistically) QB, and now a confusing backfield. We’ll need to pay a lot for all six of these players.
That means this slate should consider whether there’s a seventh option — a cheap potential bargain to help make the remaining dollar amounts work. Or if we believe the Rams will give San Francisco their third-straight loss, perhaps we’d have room for only two 49ers in this slate — both in the passing game.
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The most polarizing (for all the best reasons) player to consider here is Christian McCaffrey. This 3-4 franchise expects him to help carry them over the top. If they fall behind early, I believe McCaffrey could become even more productive, possibly garnering 8+ receptions.
So what could go wrong? Well, the Rams have given up the fewest RB fantasy points per game (13.6). The next-best unit is the Cowboys (17.3). Yeah, that’s a pretty damning stat if we’re investing 15% or even 20% of our DFS capital on McCaffrey — unless we believe his new team is committed to feeding him in the passing game, as well as pushing Jeff Wilson Jr. into a distant 1B role.
Top DFS Lineup for Rams vs. 49ers
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($16,500)
For a few hundred dollars more, we could make Cooper Kupp the captain. But I can’t make that work under the salary cap. McCaffrey has a similar 20+ point ceiling, assuming 6+ receptions and at least one goal-line look. Although it’s hard to argue Kupp has the most upside today, as you’ll see shortly, McCaffrey is the better bet.
Flex: WR Cooper Kupp, Rams ($11,400)
And here he is: the man, the myth, the Ram. Or “Mr. Ram,” as he might someday be known. Of course, we have to include Kupp in this DFS slate. However, I don’t believe he’ll be the highest scorer.
The last time these two teams met in Week 4, Stafford peppered Kupp with 19 targets, which tied for the most targets any wideout has received since Week 8 of 2020 — when Kupp had 20. (I love analyzing stats that come full circle.)
By and large, the 49ers contained him that day, limiting Kupp to only 6.4 yards per look. I expect San Francisco to continue trying to contain him, while also anticipating fewer targets, culminating in a more “modest” (for Kupp) 13-18 DFS points.
Flex: TE George Kittle, 49ers ($8,000)
With Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings hobbled, we might see a lot more from George Kittle. He’s redeveloped terrific chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s good enough for me.
Ah, but wait. Some of you are pointing out that LA has surrendered the fewest average TE fantasy points in the league. So, of course, they’ll know how to stop Kittle. Let’s briefly walk through the lead TE the Rams have faced, because this is an example of how misleading stats can create misleading narratives.
Week 1: Dawson Knox — 1-5-0 receiving line
Week 2: Kyle Pitts — 2-19-0
Week 3: Zach Ertz — 6-45-0
Week 4: George Kittle — 2-24-0
Week 5: Dalton Schultz — 0-0-0
Week 6: Ian Thomas — 2-22-0
Week 7: Bye
We can apply some logic to most or all of these outcomes. Knox wasn’t needed much in a blowout win. For Pitts, the Falcons’ passing attack is among the five least effective. Kittle was still rounding into form after missing the start of the season with a groin injury. Schultz was much less than 100% healthy for multiple games, including Week 5. Thomas is averaging 2-11-0 per contest.
In fact, Thomas and Ertz both did better than their season averages, while Pitts came close to matching his season average of just under 3-30 with one total touchdown.
Many savvy bettors will avoid Kittle because of the Rams’ impressive macro-level performance against tight ends. But when we have time, it’s always helpful to assess the context. Kittle is a near-elite TE in a somewhat injury-depleted receiving corps. He should get his numbers.
Flex: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,800)
Not much needs to be said about Aiyuk. He’s fulfilled his potential and more this year. There are no signs of him slowing down.
Flex: WR Ben Skowronek, Rams ($4,800)
If I could afford Tyler Higbee in this lineup, I would probably prefer Stafford’s starting tight end (more on that shortly). Instead, Skowronek is a suitable downgrade who still brings 10+ point potential after hitting 10+ in three of his last four outings.
However, with reports that Van Jefferson ($3,400) will return on Sunday, I would advise swapping out Skowronek for Jefferson if the latter is named the starter with no publicly stated limitations (e.g. snap counts).
Flex: RB Malcolm Brown, Rams ($1,400)
I don’t trust the recovering Henderson to handle a full workload in a brutal matchup. Serving as the No. 2 RB (for now), Malcolm Brown could earn a sizable backfield share if Henderson struggles, or if game script pushes Henderson to the sidelines early in anticipation of Week 9.
There is one contingency that would supersede the Skowronek vs. Jefferson quandary. If Deebo Samuel (questionable) is declared out for Week 8, then I would replace Skowronek/Jefferson and Brown with Higbee ($5,400) and Danny Gray ($200), in the belief that Gray could top 40 snaps playing as the No. 2 or No. 3 WR.
