If you’re playing an Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Colts Considerations
The Colts’ brief Matt Ryan era appears to be over. Either second-year pro Sam Ehlinger will help lead (or not stand in the way of) the Colts reaching the playoffs, or this will be yet another lost season for a franchise that’s been consistently one “great” QB away from a deep run.
Ehlinger is the biggest DFS variable we’ll have to contend with in this slate, and perhaps in all of Week 8. He’s the prototypical “unknown” on a team with three strong WR options and multiple intriguing TEs. He’s also a mobile QB who could realistically scamper 7+ times on Sunday.
Combined with what should be a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor (30+ touches are possible), we’re pulled in two opposite directions. Either Taylor is the only safe DFS play, or Ehlinger will shock the fantasy and betting worlds, with possible help from a Washington defense yielding the second-most passing TDs (14). However, 10 of those scores came in the first four weeks.
A cheap Ehlinger would be appealing. But DFS QBs generally are pricey, meaning we’ll need to think hard about whether he or any of his receivers are worth the investment.
Commanders Considerations
Another team, another backup QB, although Taylor Heinicke isn’t your normal backup. The 29-year-old started 15 contests for this squad in 2021. He knows the offense. Last week’s win over Green Bay — his first action since last season — was nothing short of impressive.
And yet, this isn’t merely about producing fundamentally sound outings. This is more about gaudy stat lines. Indy’s been pretty good against the pass and have surrendered 165 or fewer passing yards in three of their last four contests. That’s an incredible feat.
MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8
The challenge for Washington is that they have two terrific wideouts who oscillate between excellent and middling — yet we’re paying premium prices for each. Their backfield volume favors Brian Robinson, even though Antonio Gibson brings more value in the all-important receiving game.
Normally, I might suggest Washington’s D/ST against a young, green QB. But if the Colts run it as much as I think they will, then investing in the Commanders’ D/ST on the road seems unnecessarily risky.
Top DFS Lineup for Colts vs. Commanders
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($16,800)
As suggested above, a healthy Taylor has long been the key to the Colts’ up-and-down offense. On Sunday, he’ll be more than “the key.” He’ll be like a gigantic Medieval cast iron skeleton key that required eight people to turn it, just to open the castle doors so that the queen’s chickens could get some fresh air.
If Taylor flops, then for all intents and purposes, the Colts are toast. Facing a middling-at-best Washington run defense that also has to worry about a newly installed, run-friendly QB, Taylor should have room to dominate.
Flex: QB Sam Ehlinger, Colts ($9,400)
All week I’ve oscillated between “There’s no way I’ll recommend Ehlinger” to “But actually . . .” He looked atrocious during the 2021 preseason, throwing three picks on only 31 attempts. Ah, but he showed off his running ability, compiling 55 yards on 11 carries.
This preseason, he looked simply stellar: a 4-0 TD-INT ratio and a 6-71-1 rushing line. Granted, this was the preseason. But he made plays normally reserved for crafty veterans — like escaping a near sack against the Bills, scrambling to his right, and then firing a perfect 15-yard laser to Jelani Woods in the end zone.
The last of 10 QBs taken in the 2021 draft — all the way back in the sixth round — Ehlinger might end up having a better career than some of those first-rounders. Or he might not have what it takes. But he has the supporting cast and favorable matchup to make some noise.
Flex: RB Brian Robinson, Commanders ($8,400)
The first of a two-part hedge. The opposing Colts are yielding the league’s fewest WR fantasy points per game. I believe this game will run less than three hours, as both teams focus on the run for very different reasons. Robinson is a good bet for 15+ touches and a couple of catches.
Flex: RB Antonio Gibson, Commanders ($7,000)
In what’s shaping up as a respectable one-two punch, Gibson brings unique versatility that should serve his offense well against a tough pass defense. By pairing him with Robinson, we can bet on a combined 22+ points, in the belief that no Washington receiver will exceed 13 points.
Flex: Colts D/ST ($4,800)
It’s tough to sustain defensive pressure when your offense turns the ball over twice per game. In fact, Indy’s offensive time of possession has shrunk one minute and 57 seconds compared to last season, in large part because they’ve transitioned from one of the lowest-giveaway teams to one of the highest.
On Sunday, I expect a more run-focused Colts offense that keeps the defense fresher. They’ve averaged a solid 9.3 DFS points in their last three games. That seems like a realistic baseline in this one.
Flex: Commanders D/ST ($3,400)
And because they’re facing a QB attempting his first regular-season NFL passes, with $3,600 remaining, I’ll recommend Washington’s D/ST. How might this work? Well, Taylor could rumble for 120 yards, and Ehlinger could scamper for 50 more. Indy might net 17 points.
But that doesn’t preclude Washington from bearing down on Ehlinger in the pocket. This unit sacked the nimble Jalen Hurts three times, and the similarly speedy Justin Fields five times. The Commanders D/ST is a solid bet for 10+ points, making them a potential bargain at this price.
