The men’s singles draw for the 2026 Australian Open was announced on January 15, with 128 of the world’s most elite men’s players ready to compete for the first Major of the year, starting from January 18. The top two-ranked players in the world, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, are the favorites to win the title, along with Novak Djokovic, who is a close third.
Let’s take a look at the potential paths to the final for these three players.
Jannik Sinner Looking For a Hattrick Of Titles At The Australian Open
Winning the title in 2024 and 2025, Jannik Sinner is looking to become only the second male player after Novak Djokovic to complete a hat-trick of titles at Melbourne Park. The Italian reached the finals of all four Majors last year and has been a dominant force on the hard courts in the last two years.
Sinner begins his campaign with a first-round match against Hugo Gaston, against whom the Italian has a 2-0 head-to-head record, and it should be smooth sailing for the second seed. The same should be said about the second round fixture for Sinner, where he will likely face James Duckworth, which should be another comfortable win for the two-time champion, even though Duckworth has won one of the three matches he has played against Sinner.
The first potential seeded player for Sinner would be rising star João Fonseca in the third round. The duo have not met on the ATP Tour yet, but the Italian is the more experienced and established player, and should come through even though it promises to be a cracking contest. Karen Khachanova would likely face the defending champion in the fourth round, with Sinner holding a 4-1 head-to-head record against the Russian player.
Sinner’s likely quarterfinal opponent would be Ben Shelton, against whom the Italian has a dominant 8-1 head-to-head record, including a win at the Australian Open semifinal last year. The semifinal opponent for Sinner would be one of Lorenzo Musetti, Taylor Fritz, or Novak Djokovic. The Italian has a winning record against all three players, including a five-match win streak he is currently on against Djokovic, whom he is likely to face.
The most likely final opponent for Sinner will be top seed Carlos Alcaraz, which would make it four consecutive Major finals that these two players have competed in. The head-to-head stands at 10-6 in favor of the Spaniard, but it is Sinner who won the last match at the summit clash at the ATP Finals last year.
Carlos Alcaraz Will Aim To Complete The Career Slam at The Australian Open
The Australian Open is the last Major that Carlos Alcaraz has yet to conquer. In fact, the Spaniard has never been past the quarterfinal stage in Melbourne, a stat he will be desperate to rectify this time around.
Alcaraz will begin his campaign against Adam Walton in the first round, and then likely face Yannick Hanfmann in the second round, two matches which the top seed should not have any problem winning. The first seeded opponent for Alcaraz would likely be the last of the seeded players, Corentin Moutet, in the third round. The Spaniard has never faced the left-handed Frenchman before, but should be able to get through that matchup.
Tommy Paul would likely be the opponent for Alcaraz in the fourth round. Although the American has beaten the World No. 1 twice previously, the Spaniard has won their last four meetings and will be the heavy favorite in that match. Alcaraz would either face sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur or tenth-seeded Alexander Bublik in the quarterfinals. He has an undefeated record against the Australian, but has never faced Bublik before.
The quarterfinals are the stage where Alcaraz has slipped up a couple of times in Melbourne in the past, and a potential match against Bublik, who is in exceptional form, might be a tricky matchup for the Spaniard.
Alexander Zverev is the likely semifinal opponent for Alcaraz, who has a 6-6 head-to-head record against the Spaniard. However, the Spaniard has won three of the last four matches against the German, including a Major final at the 2024 French Open.
Alcaraz would most likely have to go through Sinner in the final, and even though he leads the head-to-head against the Italian, doing so on the Rod Laver Arena would be no easy task.
Novak Djokovic Chasing History At The Australian Open
Novak Djokovic is still persistent in his pursuit of an elusive and record-extending 25th Major title in his career. The best place for the Serb to achieve this remarkable feat would be at the Australian Open, where he has been the last man standing on ten occasions, more than any player.
The Serb will begin his campaign against Pedro Martinez in the first round, and potentially face Terence Atmane in the second round, both matches which the fourth seed should win. His probable opponent for the third round would be Brandon Nakashima, whom he has never faced before, but he should be able to get past and reach the second week.
Djokovic’s most likely fourth-round opponent would be Jakub Menšík, who beat the Serb in the Miami Open final last year. If the Czech player serves well, he will really pose a threat to the ten-time champion. Either Lorenzo Musetti or Taylor Fritz would be the likely quarterfinal opponent for Djokovic. The Serb has yet to lose against the American on eleven occasions and has lost only once in ten matches against the Italian.
For Djokovic to achieve the 25th Major, he most likely has to go through the duo of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, respectively, in the semifinal and the final. Even though he won against the Spaniard in Melbourne last year, he has lost his last five matches against Sinner, which includes three Grand Slam semifinals.
If there are no upsets and no injury concerns, Sinner and Alcaraz will meet in the final once again. For Djokovic to go past both of them at this stage of his career would be incredible but highly unlikely.
