With Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love playing at a high level and San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy in the MVP discussion for most of the season, this Packers–49ers game carries some intrigue. It’s also the favorite in “which game will be the highest scoring this weekend” markets.
What do the numbers have to say about how this matchup will play out? How do we best leverage trends to cook up a Packers-49ers same game parlay?
Packers vs. 49ers Odds
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- Spread
49ers -9.5 - Moneyline
Packers +340, 49ers -440 - Total
50.5
Packers vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and they are on the hook.
Trivia Question: Green Bay has lost four straight playoff games to San Francisco. Can you name either Packer that caught a touchdown pass from QB Brett Favre the last time they beat the 49ers in the playoffs?
It’s tough to fade the San Francisco 49ers in this spot. As good as the Packers have been, the 49ers have been a juggernaut outside of a weird three-game hiccup in October.
- Scoring offense: 2nd
- Scoring defense: 3rd
Spinning that story into a same game parlay with some upside requires some finesse. When the 49ers have the ball, I expect them to have success working through RB Christian McCaffrey early and often.
For the season, Green Bay creates pressure at the sixth-highest rate, a defensive style that a quick-striking San Francisco passing game could dismantle in short order. But wait, there’s more.
The Packers rank 25th in opponent completion percentage when pressured and 24th in opponent aDOT (average depth of target) in those pressured spots. Those trends point in the direction of the Niners’ All-World running back.
Catch rate when Brock Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 68.8%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 63.3%
- George Kittle: 57.7%
- Deebo Samuel: 52.0%
Targets per route when Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 22.9%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 19.6%
- Deebo Samuel: 19.0%
- George Kittle: 16.0%
With extra time to prepare, look for HC Kyle Shanahan to use this style of play to his advantage, especially early on when the plays are more scripted out ahead of time.
To that end, if the 49ers are going to advance through this round, a hot start is likely.
- Packers: 6.5 PPG in first half of losses this season
- 49ers: 17.3 PPG in first half of wins this season
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
In eight of their 12 wins this season, the 49ers have won the first half by at least seven points. Their embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball allows them to scheme up mismatches and control the game from the drop.
We are building a story, and no story is complete without an antagonist. In this case, it is the smoking hot Love, who has Cheeseheads across the globe optimistic that the franchise has landed on a third straight franchise quarterback.
That may be true — I still need to be sold, but the early returns are certainly encouraging — though seeing it out west isn’t statistically likely. Four times this season, a QB reached 270 passing yards against the 49ers. In each of those instances, they kept picking at a scab created by an alpha target-earner.
- Week 2 (LAR, no Cooper Kupp) – Puka Nacua: 15 catches (38.5% target share)
- Week 7 (MIN, no Justin Jefferson) – T.J. Hockenson: 10 catches (27.9% share)
- Week 8 – (CIN) Ja’Marr Chase: 10 catches (37.5% share)
- Week 13 – (PHI) AJ Brown: 8 catches (31% share)
We all like the direction of this Love passing game, but there is no denying that this Packers offense, at the moment, lacks an alpha receiver that can take over a game like what we saw in the above instances.
- Average top GB earner, 2023: 23.9% target share
- Average top GB earner, since Week 6 bye: 22.3% target share
Outside of those standout performances, the 49ers cough up just 193.6 yards through the air per game and only 6.0 yards per attempt. At that per pass production, Love would have to throw at least 42 passes — something he hasn’t done since September (Week 3 vs. Saints).
- Trivia Answer: Antonio Freeman and Bubba Franks caught touchdowns as Green Bay advanced past San Francisco in the 2001 playoffs.
- Packers vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay: 49ers 1H (-6.5), Jordan Love under 249.5 passing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions
- Odds: +600 (at DraftKings)
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