For the first time in half a decade, there’s some uncertainty in the Dallas Cowboys backfield. We know Tony Pollard is locked in as the starter, but we don’t know who his primary backup will be. If the Cowboys don’t sign a veteran, the favorite for that role looks like Malik Davis. Could he be a steal in the later rounds of 2023 fantasy football drafts?
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Is Malik Davis the Cowboys’ RB2?
As things currently stand, Davis, a 2022 UDFA, is the only other running back on the roster who was there last year. Technically, Rico Dowdle was, but he played all of six offensive snaps last season.
Behind Pollard, we have Davis, Ronald Jones, and rookie sixth-rounder Deuce Vaughn. Jones is a failed prospect who is nothing more than roster depth. Vaughn is interesting because he’s a rookie, but he went late on Day 3 and is 5’5″, 179 pounds. It’s fair to wonder if he can even hold up at the NFL level.
Last season, there were three games where one of Pollard or Ezekiel Elliott was inactive. In those games, Davis was the clear RB2 each time.
In Weeks 8 and 17, Davis saw a 30% snap share and 10 and 12 touches, respectively. In Week 10, Davis only played 13% of the snaps, but that’s because Pollard played 85% of them. Davis was still the RB2.
With guys like Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, and Elliott himself floating around, it still seems more likely than not that the Cowboys add another back. But right now, that hasn’t happened. And if it doesn’t happen, we can actually feel quite confident about Davis as the Cowboys’ RB2.
Could Malik Davis Have Standalone Value?
If Davis wound up starting for an injured Pollard, it goes without saying he would have RB2 value on a prolific Cowboys offense. What fantasy managers need to know is if Davis could possibly have standalone value.
In the two games in which he saw a 30% snap share, Davis scored 6.1 and 8.2 PPR fantasy points. That’s not quite enough to say he has standalone value, but it’s more encouraging than not.
At his peak, Zeke was playing 85-90% of the offensive snaps. We can safely assume the Cowboys have no intentions of using the 15-pound lighter Pollard the same way.
Head coach Mike McCarthy wants to run the ball. Now, to be fair, the Cowboys were already one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL last season, with a 49% neutral-game-script-run rate. They can’t exactly run it more much than they did.
At the same time, the Cowboys play fast, as evidenced by their 26.9 seconds per snap rate, the third-fastest in the league. They run a lot of plays. As a result, there will be plenty of carries to go around. Are we really projecting Pollard for 290+? I’m certainly not.
My projections have Pollard at 255 carries on the season. That’s 15 carries a game. Given Pollard’s receiving acumen, we have to allocate touches through the air. Pollard is not going to touch the ball 350 times. Someone else has to get work. That guy sure looks like Davis.
Even at 255 carries, that only accounts for around 50% of the total carries I have projected for this offense. That leaves Davis at about 7.5-8.0 carries per game.
My projections have him running it 131 times for 588 yards and 5.1 touchdowns while adding 20 receptions for 168 yards and 2.5 receiving touchdowns. That comes out to 8.6 ppg and an RB41 finish.
At those numbers, Davis would undoubtedly be worth rostering the entire season and even worth starting in the right matchups or to cover byes/injuries. And those numbers presume 17 healthy games of Pollard. They don’t account for the upside in the event of a Pollard injury. Even if it’s just a game or two, having a season-long RB4 who is an RB2 for a couple of weeks is a success for a late-round pick.
Should Fantasy Managers Target Malik Davis?
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy managers make when it comes to drafting backup running backs is overconfidence in that player’s ability to assume a large portion of the starter’s work and productivity.
No one is pretending that Davis can be Pollard. But he is a complete afterthought in fantasy drafts right now. To be fair, a lot of that may be due to the uncertainty surrounding the Cowboys’ backfield. As we get closer to the season and Dallas doesn’t add an RB, Davis’ ADP will likely rise. Right now, though, it’s at RB69, which is a very nice price.
Essentially, Davis isn’t even being drafted half the time. Where else are you going to find a clear RB2 on an elite offense with potential RB4 standalone value and RB2 injury upside this late in drafts?
I have Davis ranked as my RB52. If his ADP doesn’t increase, he will be someone I roster a whole lot of in 2023 fantasy football leagues.
