Cole Kmet’s fantasy production has increased over each of his first three seasons. While the Chicago Bears will remain run-heavy, there can’t possibly be less passing volume this season. Could an increase in offensive volume and efficiency propel Kmet to a top-five finish in fantasy football this season?
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Does Cole Kmet Have Top-5 Fantasy Upside?
When assessing a tight end’s upside, particularly to finish in the top five, we must understand it in the proper context. Not every top-five finish is created equal.
For example, last season, the TE5, Dallas Goedert, averaged 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game. In 2021, the TE5 averaged 12.3 ppg. In 2020, the TE5 only averaged 11.0 ppg. But in 2019, the TE5 averaged an impressive 13.8 ppg. That’s a pretty sizable difference between the lowest-scoring and highest-scoring TE5.
Regardless, we know Kmet needs to at least get to 11 ppg to have a shot at a top-five finish. So, we’ll start there. Before we even bother figuring out whether 11 ppg is enough to possibly earn a top-five finish this season, can Kmet get there?
Let’s throw out Kmet’s rookie season because rookie tight ends almost never produce anyway. Also, he barely played.
Over his past two seasons, Kmet has averaged 7.1 ppg (2021) and 8.7 ppg (2022). He reached those numbers in very different ways.
In 2021, Kmet set career-highs in targets (93), receptions (60), and yards (612). He just somehow scored zero touchdowns.
In 2022, Kmet’s target share actually increased from 17.7% to 19.3%. However, because the Bears only threw the ball 22.2 times per game, his targets dropped by 24 and his receptions by 10. Yet, Kmet still managed to increase his ppg by 1.6 because he scored seven times.
What if we combined Kmet’s 2022 touchdown prowess with his 2021 overall productivity? So, 60 catches for 612 yards and seven touchdowns. That gets us 9.6 ppg, which is still well short of the threshold he needs to hit.
The Bears ran the ball 56% of the time last season. Of course, they will throw more this season. But even a significant increase in pass attempts will still likely place them in the bottom five in terms of pass rate. This is going to remain a run-oriented offense.
I struggle to see how much higher Kmet’s target share can go. That is especially the case with the target competition a whole lot steeper.
Last season, Kmet was competing with Darnell Mooney — who, while talented, has no business being any NFL team’s WR1 — and an array of players that are rotational WR4/5s, at best.
Kmet also benefited from an increase in targets after Mooney got hurt. Over the final five games of the season without Mooney, Kmet’s targets per game increased from 3.67 to 5.2.
This season, Mooney is still around, but he’s back to his more traditional WR2 role. Occupying the WR1 role is a true alpha and proven talent in D.J. Moore. In a low-volume passing attack, my projections have Moore commanding a 27.5% target share. That creates a challenge for Kmet to see additional work.
I have Kmet projected for a 17.5% target share, which is a slight tick down from last season. Even if Kmet’s usage stays the same, there’s no scenario in which he could finish in the top five.
How Likely Is Cole Kmet To Finish Inside the Top 10?
The only remotely plausible path I see to Kmet being a top-five tight end is an outlier touchdown season. Justin Fields is probably not throwing more than 25 TDs at the absolute high end of his range of outcomes. Kmet would need at least 10 of them to have any shot.
That represents 40% of the Bears’ passing touchdowns, assuming Fields even gets to 25. That leaves only 60% for Moore, Mooney, the running backs, and all the ancillary pass catchers. It’s just not a realistic outcome.
My projections have Kmet catching 54 passes for 540 yards and 5.1 touchdowns, averaging 7.9 ppg. Even doubling Kmet’s touchdowns would not be enough to get to double-digits.
Kmet would need to score 11-12 touchdowns, as well as see an uptick in receptions and yards, to have a shot at 11 ppg. And even then, as we established above, that may not be enough for a top-five finish. That is merely the absolute minimum required to have a shot at one.
We can safely assume Kmet is not jumping Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or T.J. Hockenson. To finish in the top five, he’d have to get ahead of two of George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts, or Darren Waller while also outperforming every other middle-round tight end.
Given the guys atop the tight end position, plus the combination of Kmet’s situation, opportunity, and talent, I do not see a path to a top-five fantasy finish in 2023.
