The 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds make for interesting reading with a mix of different positions sitting in the top 10 spots. Over the last 10 years, the award has been won by three running backs, four quarterbacks, and three wide receivers. The recent history has been dominated by the WR position, with three of the last four winners being pass catchers.
As we look ahead to the 2023 NFL season, let’s take a look at the Offensive Player of the Year odds, as well as some predictions and longshot picks from our panel of analysts. Making up our panel are PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, our Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting and Fantasy Analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz, and FOX Sports Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
Live NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of June 14, 2023.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions
Wingo: Offensive Player of the Year is always tricky. Everything is skewed towards QBs, but a lot of running backs populate this list, so let’s go with it. The offense in San Fran is set up to let Christian McCaffrey (+1100 at Caesars) eat no matter who is playing QB.
Fallica: It was a season cut short by injury last year for Deebo Samuel (+4000 at FanDuel), but he returned and showed why he’s the most dynamic player on the 49ers’ offense.
In 2021, he combined for 136 touches, 1,771 combined rushing and receiving yards, and 14 TDs. He’ll continue to see the ball in a variety of different ways, regardless of who the Niners QB is.
Bearman: He could’ve won it last year and will be set up to win it this year. Tyreek Hill (+2000) is going to be part of the most explosive offense in football. He’s aiming to be the first to 2,000-yard receiver, and if Tua stays healthy, 17 games in that offense with QB1 could lead to MVP.
BJ: This year’s Bengals could be more pass-heavy than usual, which is saying a lot, given this franchise’s recent track record. Joe Mixon has averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in his last 400 rushing attempts, and he’s mired in a serious legal issue that might force him to the sidelines at some point.
Justin Jefferson won this award comfortably last year with a 128-1,809-8 receiving line. Don’t be surprised if the 23-year-old Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) takes another step forward and hits 115-1,675-10 on a team that needs him to shine more than ever.
Katz: Historically, this is basically the non-QB MVP award. We’re looking for a truly outstanding offensive season from a running back or wide receiver. Give me Tyreek Hill at +2000. Hill caught 119 passes for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns in his first year with the Dolphins. Now, he’s had a full season to really master Mike McDaniel’s offense.
If Tua Tagovailoa can play 17 games, Hill has a legitimate shot at a 2,000-yard season. If he does that and scores 10+ touchdowns, it will be hard for him not to win this award.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Let’s put Deshaun Watson (+4500 at Caesars) in this conversation. He arguably has the best team around him in his career. The rust of almost two years off is gone. Whatever the best of him is, you’d expect it to show up in 2023.
Bearman: Before the injury, Cooper Kupp (+2200) was well on his way to his second consecutive Offensive Player of the Year award, and that was on a pretty bad Rams team, in which he was the main, and sometimes, the only option. Well, Kupp should be back 100% this year, so why not again?
BJ: Throw out last season for Justin Herbert (+3500) and the rest of his injury-riddled receiving corps. No more leaning heavily on DeAndre Carter or even Josh Palmer (who led this corps in targets and receptions).
A healthy Chargers offense is downright frightening for all the best reasons. This is a playoff-caliber team, and the offense runs squarely through the 25-year-old Herbert, who is primed to break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing-yardage record of 5,477.
Katz: We’ve seen what Aaron Rodgers can do with elite WR1s. Garrett Wilson, at +2500, looks like the nice elite WR1 in the NFL. He just hasn’t taken that step yet.
If it comes this year, and he puts together a season like Justin Jefferson did last season, Wilson is very much capable of winning it. Rodgers loves to hone in on his WR1, and Wilson is significantly better than every other receiver on the Jets. If he sees Davante Adams-level volume, Wilson could be a not-so-surprise winner this season.
Recent Risers and Fallers
The Offensive Player of the Year odds are one of the more recently released, meaning we haven’t had much chance to see significant changes at this point. Some names we could see rise as the season gets closer include Kupp and Jonathan Taylor as we get further clarity on their injury situations from last year.
Who Is the Favorite To Win Offensive Player of the Year?
As it stands in mid-June, we have co-favorites in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds. The oddsmakers appear to believe we could be in line for a third-straight WR winner, as they have installed Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase as favorites at +1000.
The two fourth-year wide receivers have had extremely successful starts to their career and will be looking to impress again in a contract year for both. They’re ahead of the top two running backs in McCaffrey (+1400) and Austin Ekeler (+1800), with the first quarterback listed being Justin Fields at +2000.
