Calling all bettors! The NFL Draft is now firmly behind us. Next, we turn fully to the approaching 2023 campaign and how first-year defenders will play on the field. Who will win the Associated Press NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year? The following NFL betting odds and predictions for the upcoming regular season are based on DraftKings Sportsbook from May 8, 2023.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
The NFL has bestowed this honor on a rookie defender each year since 1967. The Detroit Lions’ Lem Barney won the first award after intercepting 10 passes (and running back three for touchdowns) in only 14 games. Last year’s winner, the New York Jets’ Sauce Gardner, netted a whopping 46 out of 50 first-place votes.
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As with most NFL awards, the DROY is often a tough one to predict. The best defensive players don’t always win, or even come close. Sometimes an injury dooms their chances. Or they might play on a strong defensive team that clouds their otherwise impressive accomplishments.
Here are DraftKings’ betting lines for each promising candidate:
- Will Anderson Jr., LB, Houston Texans (+350)
- Jalen Carter, DL, Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
- Tyree Wilson, OLB, Las Vegas Raiders (+800)
- Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks (+900)
- Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots (+1000)
- Lukas Van Ness, DL, Green Bay Packers (+1200)
- Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Washington Commanders (+1400)
- Nolan Smith, OLB, Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)
- Jack Campbell, LB, Detroit Lions (+1800)
- Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000)
- Will McDonald IV, DE, New York Jets (+2000)
- Deonte Banks, CB, New York Giants (+2000)
- Brian Branch, S, Detroit Lions (+2000)
- Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)
- Myles Murphy, DE, Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
- Bryan Bresee, DT, New Orleans Saints (+2500)
- Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens (+2500)
- Cam Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins (+2500)
- Calijah Kancey, DL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500)
- Keion White, DL, New England Patriots (+2500)
- Drew Sanders, LB, Denver Broncos (+2500)
- BJ Ojulari, DE, Arizona Cardinals (+3000)
- Mazi Smith, DL, Dallas Cowboys (+3500)
- Kelee Ringo, CB, Philadelphia Eagles (+3500)
Who Is the Favorite To Win Defensive Rookie of the Year?
The first two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft were quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. When the Texans traded up to secure the No. 3 overall pick, there wasn’t much surprise about who came off the board next: Will Anderson Jr.
The Texans had a deceptively capable defense last year. Consider how poorly their offense functioned, especially after Dameon Pierce got hurt. Also, consider that CB Derek Stingley Jr. — their No. 3 overall pick the year before — missed eight contests.
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So ignore (somewhat) the fact that Houston yielded the sixth-most points per game. Anderson is stepping in to help anchor an ascending unit. He might be this year’s Shaquille Leonard (more on that below). He’s the front-runner not only because he’s supremely talented but also because he landed in a fairly ideal environment to stand out.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
First, some percentages to lay the groundwork for a (hopefully) thoughtful rundown of realistic possibilities. Linebackers have won this award 27 out of 56 times (48%). The only time there was a tie was in 1980, when two linebackers — both on the Falcons, strangely enough — received the same vote total.
Defensive linemen — both DEs and DTs — have combined for 18 awards, while nine cornerbacks have claimed the prize. Only two safeties have earned DROY honors.
But the game isn’t played the same way in the modern NFL, reflecting a shifting approach to bestowing awards. Only two linebackers have won in the last 10 years, as defensive linemen have accounted for half of the winners during this span.
And in recent years, it’s been customary for winners to be high draft picks. Sauce Gardner (2022) went No. 4 overall. Micah Parsons (2021) went No. 12. Chase Young (2020) went No. 2. And so on.
In fact, it’s been five years since a player taken outside the top 12 has won DROY; that was Shaquille Leonard in 2018, who went early in the second round to a Colts team that had just yielded the third-most points in the league the year before. Leonard went on to lead the league in solo and combined tackles while compiling seven sacks, as Indy dramatically turned things around. So, of course, Leonard was in a prime position to receive deserved accolades.
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But Leonard is also the exception, at least in the modern NFL. If we exclude his 2018 honors, every other winner since 2007 has been selected in the first 18 picks. Their average draft position was 8.5. Six of those 15 guys (40%) went in the top four.
So there are a few things at play as we look to the 2023 DROY. And I feel fairly confident removing some notable names from the list of “realistic contenders” for this award, beginning with the three Eagles rookies. Yes, Jalen Carter might prove to be the best or second-best defensive player from the draft. But he’s joining a unit packed with talent. I don’t see how he earns enough attention from voters in Year 1.
The same can be said for the Patriots’ duo. New England appeared to have drafted well, and they now boast one of the AFC’s best defenses. Will Christian Gonzalez stand out on a unit filled with terrific playmakers and in a division loaded with elite and near-elite receivers?
In addition to the favored Will Anderson Jr., I like Devon Witherspoon in Seattle as an immediate difference-maker on a team that surrendered the eighth-most points last year. Like Anderson, he’s expected to play a prominent role from Day 1. That’s what you want to see in a DROY contender. It also helps that he’ll face a rookie QB and four or five highly inexperienced QBs.
Comeback Player of the Year Sleepers
Keep an eye on relative longshot Calijah Kancey, who might get the opportunity to feast in a winnable division featuring three questionably proficient offenses. The Buccaneers are trying to move on without Tom Brady. It’s doubtful that Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask will be able to generate the offensive levels Bucs fans are accustomed to.
That said, Kancey’s relatively small stature (for his position) makes him a boom/bust NFL prospect. And he’ll need to carve out a starting role quickly to establish DROY cred.
The Giants’ Deonte Banks is a more promising sleeper — still a longshot, but someone who should fill a gap right away. And Banks looks NFL-ready. While he, unfortunately, plays in a fierce division, that doesn’t preclude him from stepping up immediately as the Giants’ No. 1 presence in their secondary.
