If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this potentially Baker-Mayfield-filled Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 14 matchup on Thursday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Rams vs. Raiders Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Raiders will claim a narrow road victory over the defending Super Bowl champions. Of course, “defending Super Bowl champions” won’t strike the same fear in Vegas players as it might have three months ago. The Rams are putting their faith in an array of guys who were merely backups only a few weeks ago.
The Raiders don’t put much pressure on opposing QBs, opening the door for some potential big passing plays to speedy guys like Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson. And speaking of passing, no one yet knows whether Bryce Perkins, John Wolford, and/or the newly acquired Mayfield will take snaps.
Meanwhile, Vegas shockingly remains in playoff contention. They actually control their own destiny at 5-7. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are the main reasons why. Take both out of this offensive, and they might be 0-12.
This game could be messy and disjointed. But one thing is nearly certain: the Raiders will have to earn nearly every yard, and their defense will need to step up. The Rams have committed the league’s fewest penalties.
Derek Carr Player Props
Derek Carr has thrown for more than 245 yards and 2+ TDs in each of his last five games. But line setters clearly aren’t convinced, with his props assuming a roughly 50% probability of regressing.
With the Rams yielding 236 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs per contest, and with Adams healthy and locked in, I’m willing to bet on Carr needing to throw early and often.
- Passing yards over 245.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-118) — FanDuel
Josh Jacobs Player Props
I’m also assuming Jacobs slows down, forcing Carr to carry the offense more than usual. Why? Isn’t it blasphemy to rain on the Jacobs parade after rushing for 482 yards in the last three weeks?
On the one hand, Jacobs will be a free agent after this season. So the Raiders have nothing to lose running him into the ground — which is what they’ve done. He’s already up to 284 touches, putting him on pace for a whopping 402. Only four days ago, he earned 28.
I’m fading Jacobs in a tough road matchup against a defense yielding the fourth fewest yards per carry (3.9).
- Receiving yards under 89.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Davante Adams Player Props
Meanwhile, Adams has averaged 8.2 catches for 133 yards in his last five outings while scoring seven times. If he comes close to sustaining this pace in these final five weeks, Adams could surpass Cooper Kupp’s yardage and touchdowns from last season. Simply incredible.
I cannot justify going “under” on his prop line. Realistically, only an injury could slow him. The Rams just surrendered nearly identical 8+/127+/1 receiving lines to both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Two weeks earlier, Chris Olave hit 5/102/1. The week before that, DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore each enjoyed 9+/94+/0 lines.
Enough said.
- Receiving yards over 87.5
(-115) — BetMGM
Mack Hollins Player Props
Who’s ready for Mack Hollins? I am. Admittedly, I was slow on the uptake this season, believing Hunter Renfrow would (a) stay healthy and (b) play well while healthy. Neither prediction panned out.
But in recent weeks, I’ve been bullish about Hollins as the no-doubt No. 2 WR in a top-heavy offense. His prop lines seem way too low.
- Receptions over 3.5
(-168) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 45.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Van Jefferson Player Props
I’m comfortably buying into 4+ catches for 45+ yards for Jefferson. The Raiders are surrendering the fourth most receiving yards and the highest completion rate. As the de factor No. 1 receiver in this somewhat hodge-podge corps, Jefferson should find room against Vegas’s beatable secondary.
- Receptions over 2.5
(-180) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 36.5
(-115) — BetMGM
Tutu Atwell Player Props
Atwell is an electric playmaker with a bright NFL future. He didn’t fit into a crowded Rams offense in Week 1. But now, he finally has a shot at claiming a meaningful role in 2023. The former second-round draft pick earned a season-high five targets last weekend. He should outperform expectations.
- Receiving yards over 23.5
(-110) — DraftKings
