The Minnesota Vikings enter Week 11 sitting in the same crowded NFC tier that has defined their season. Their path forward remains narrow and their margin for error small, but their postseason hopes are very much alive. Minnesota is not drifting toward the league’s bottom group, and the rest of the NFC continues to shape a playoff field that leaves the Vikings firmly in the middle.
PFSN Model Shows Minnesota Holding Steady While NFC Rivals Slide Toward the Bottom
The newest PFSN Playoff Predictor update reinforces Minnesota’s position. Their win projection stands at nearly 8 wins, and their chances of reaching the postseason are just above 20%. Their odds of landing a top-ten pick are nearly identical, which highlights how compact the NFC landscape is behind the current wild-card front-runners.
The more striking takeaway comes when comparing the Vikings to three teams still on their schedule, who are far more likely to land in the top 10 of the draft.
Washington holds a top ten pick probability of nearly 70% and remains one of the league’s most likely bottom 10 finishers. Dallas sits in the mid-sixties, an unusual position given the talent on their roster. The New York Giants are above eighty percent to earn a top-10 pick.
All three teams carry significantly worse projections than Minnesota, creating a clear separation between the Vikings and the NFC’s lowest tier while highlighting Minnesota’s favorable schedule.
Analysing the NFC North is an even more detailed story. Green Bay has a shaky case, with only a 28% chance of winning the NFC North but nearly a 60% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their win projection swings more than most teams due to a difficult remaining schedule. Chicago has a better than 50% chance of reaching the postseason.
READ MORE: PFSN’s 2025 NFL Midseason Awards: Predicting the MVP, DPOY, OPOY, Coach of the Year, and More
Detroit remains the division favorite, with a win probability of around 50%, which keeps them among the most stable contenders in the league. According to PFSN’s OFFi, the Lions offense ranks 7th, one spot higher than Green Bay, and five spots higher than the Bears.
These opponent positions matter because the Vikings live in a range where one win or loss can shift their outlook in either direction. With both their playoff odds and top ten pick odds sitting close together, Minnesota remains one of the NFC’s pivotal swing teams. Their final stretch will determine whether they stay in the wild card mix or push toward the back half of the first round.
