Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Miles Sanders.

David Montgomery’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. It’s not entirely his fault. The notorious “Frankenstein” graphic did him no favors.

As a rookie, Montgomery was a disappointment, averaging just 10.7 fantasy points per game. He was only moderately better for the majority of his sophomore season. That is, until his final six games, when he never scored below 20 fantasy points.

Montgomery’s scorching finish elevated his fantasy value far higher than it ever should’ve been. Yet, in 2021, he rewarded fantasy managers with 15.1 ppg and an overall RB12 finish.

Interestingly, Montgomery’s 2021 did not have the same effect on his 2022 fantasy value. Managers remained trepidatious, and that savviness paid off as Montgomery regressed considerably.

MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

The interesting part is Montgomery actually had his best season in terms of evaded tackles per touch, finishing inside the top 10. His target share remained a healthy 11.8%. He only scored six touchdowns, but that was just a couple lower than he should’ve scored. The biggest problem Montgomery faced was volume.

Throughout his career, for better or worse, he’d pretty much been a three-down back. Last season, Khalil Herbert ate into Montgomery’s work a ton.

In 2020 and 2021, Montgomery ranked first and fourth, respectively, in opportunity share. His snap share hovered around 70-75%. In 2022, Montgomery’s opportunity share fell to 18th. It was a 20% drop from the year before and a 30% drop from the year prior.

David Montgomery’s Fantasy Ranking

Montgomery is coming off his worst season since his rookie year and saw his team decide to give him the ball less than ever. He’s 26 years old and will likely be changing teams.

Figuring out Montgomery’s dynasty value is not as simple as evaluating his talent and the years he has remaining as a potentially productive NFL running back. The quality of the offense he lands on will be just as important as what his role will be.

It’s likely Montgomery will land somewhere that he can be the RB1, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever see the volume he saw in 2020 and 2021.

Given that I never really saw it with Montgomery as a talent (and still don’t), I’m not particularly interested in rostering him in dynasty. His RB3 valuation is probably correct. Currently, he is the RB25, No. 85 overall in our dynasty Superflex rankings.

There are some more reliable veterans and unproven younger guys typically valued less than him that I would prefer. Either now or after he signs is a great time to cash out on Montgomery. If I’m doing a dynasty startup draft this year, Montgomery would not be on my radar.

Source link

Leave a Reply