Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head game we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog Fantasy, managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stats. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Thursday Night Football Pick’em contest.
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stats and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x your entry fee or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems.
J.D. McKissic Higher Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Projecting J.D. McKissic’s receiving yards is usually a projection of game script. The Commanders have lost four straight, but they have yet to play a team as bad as the Bears. We’ve really only seen them in negative game script. As a result, this could end up backfiring.
With that said, McKissic has had at least 20 receiving yards in all but one game this season. He’s also caught at least three passes in every game. His snap share is more readily predictable than either Antonio Gibson’s or Brian Robinson’s.
McKissic will be on the field, and he will see around 4-6 targets. Given that usage, he is more likely than not to reach 20 receiving yards. So let’s go higher on that number for Thursday night against the Bears.
Justin Fields Lower Than 23.5 Pass Attempts
This is just an insanely low number of pass attempts for an NFL quarterback in the year 2022. It would be considered insanely low in many eras. Nevertheless, Justin Fields has yet to attempt more than 22 passes in any game this season.
Moreover, in the two games the Bears won, where Fields wasn’t dealing with negative game script, he attempted exactly 17 passes.
The Bears are projected to be in a close, low-scoring game with the Commanders. As a result, the game script shouldn’t get away from them.
This is the lowest of low-volume passing attacks. At this point, the Bears have told us who they are. Until we see Fields reach 24 pass attempts, I’m comfortable going lower than this number every week.
David Montgomery Higher Than 16.5 Rush Attempts
In Week 1, the Bears beat the San Francisco 49ers, and David Montgomery carried the ball 17 times in that game. In Week 2, the Bears got blown out by the Packers, but Montgomery still got to 15 carries.
Montgomery got hurt in Week 3 and missed Week 4. In those two games, Khalil Herbert ran the ball 20 and 19 times. The Bears had to play from behind in Week 5 but still were able to get Montgomery 12 carries.
As stated above, this should be a close, competitive contest. I don’t anticipate the Bears needing to abandon the run. As a result, Montgomery should be able to push 20 carries.
Khalil Herbert Lower Than 34.5 Rush+Receiving Yards
In the three games Montgomery played, Herbert’s combined yardage totals were as follows: 43, 41, 11.
I know what you’re thinking — Herbert had higher than 32.5 yards in two out of three. He did, but I’m more concerned with the usage.
Herbert had nine carries and one target in Week 1. That game was also played in a monsoon in which the Bears ran the ball 37 times against just 17 pass attempts. In Week 2, Herbert had just four carries and one target. In Week 5, he had four carries and no targets, playing just 28% of the snaps.
Montgomery is the clear lead back, and Herbert is only in there when Montgomery needs a breather. It’s always possible that Herbert rips off a big play and goes higher than this number, but I’m willing to side with the lack of volume.