The Baltimore Ravens have had a very up-and-down season in 2024, but entering Week 18, they control their own destiny in terms of winning the AFC North. Three straight wins since their bye week, while the Pittsburgh Steelers have stumbled, have put the Ravens in control of the division with a chance to clinch a home game on Wild Card Weekend.
However, the Ravens have not clinched the division yet and could end up on the road in Wild Card Weekend if things do not go their way. Let’s use the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor to examine the Ravens’ scenarios for winning the AFC North and where they could end up playing if they lose this week.
What Are the Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Scenarios for Week 18?
The Ravens get a golden opportunity to clinch the AFC North at home against the Cleveland Browns in Week 18. If the Ravens win (or tie), they clinch the division, and there is nothing that the Steelers can do about it when they play later on Saturday. Unless Bailey Zappe, in his first start for the Browns, springs a major upset, the Ravens look set to clinch back-to-back division titles.
Our metrics give the Ravens an 87% chance of winning in Week 18. Zappe has yet to throw a pass for the Browns, with his last game being a 17-3 loss as the quarterback of the New England Patriots in Week 18 of last season. Zappe’s QB+ grade for the 2023 season was an F, with a score of 45 after playing in 10 games.
The Ravens also have a second path to winning the division. If they lose, then the Steelers have to win to clinch the AFC North. That would leave the Steelers and Ravens tied at 11-6, but the Steelers would win the division based on a superior division record (4-2 vs. 3-3).
However, if the Steelers fail to win, the Ravens will clinch the AFC North thanks to a superior win percentage. Our metrics give the Steelers a 60% chance of winning in their game with the Cincinnati Bengals, so there is a 5.2% chance that the Ravens clinch the division via this route. In total, the Ravens have a 92.2% chance of winning the division based on our current win probabilities.
If the Ravens do lose the division to the Steelers, they are guaranteed to finish as the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, meaning that they have an unassailable tiebreaker advantage. Therefore, if the Ravens lose and the Chargers win, Baltimore will still be the No. 5 seed as both will be tied in terms of record at 11-6.
Finishing as the No. 5 seed would send the Ravens to face the Houston Texans in a game they would be significant favorites to win (67% chance to win, per our metrics). We just saw the Ravens go into Houston and win 31-2, so they will not be afraid of a rematch.
However, playing at home on Wild Card Weekend is always preferable, and it gives the Ravens a chance of hosting either a Divisional Round game, the AFC Championship Game, or both.
If the Ravens win the division, they will host either the Chargers or Steelers. The Ravens are favored to win either of those games, having already beaten the Steelers at home in Week 16 and the Chargers on the road in Week 12. In both matchups, our metrics have the Ravens as winning those games in more than 65% of our simulations.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.
